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I haven't read any of the allegations, so bear this in mind when I say:

  1. The hackers have probably left this too late.  There isn't time for news organisations to verify any of the allegations, so Macron can get away with just denouncing the hack.

  2. France isn't the USA.  There is still a greater respect for privacy.

  3. It looks all too similar to what happened to Hillary.  So it is easy to frame the story as black propaganda.

  4. In the case of Hillary, the hacked material fed into and reinforced an already existing narrative about her.  This isn't the case with Macron.

  5. The Greatest risk for Macron was probably a failure of left voters to turn out to vote for him.  This will help galvanise them.

  6. This does nothing for Le Pen's image.

  7. The greatest longer term danger for Macron is after the elections, if some of the allegations turn out to be proven. That is not a problem fro the elections however.

  8. Last week I was expect a 60-40% result for Macron.  Given the outcome of the debate and this hack, I think it will be more like 65-35%.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat May 6th, 2017 at 09:48:48 AM EST

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