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Would you pick fruit and veg for very low pay? No? We have a problem - the Guardian
In a recent report, the chairman of a large produce firm, said that "no British person wants a seasonal job working in the fields. They want permanent jobs or jobs that are not quite as taxing physically." So companies like this rely on up to 70,000 foreign workers to pick, sort and pack fruit and vegetables. They are more willing to get their hands dirty for low pay. The same is the case in many other British industries. Not many of us want to be employed cleaning up a slaughter house, for example, so eastern European workers are vital. But this arrangement is now seriously at risk following the Brexit vote. The British Growers Association has warned that if these seasonal workers are not given special permits to enter the country, the whole industry will be in dire straits. Labour shortages would probably force producers to close or relocate overseas. This might seem like just another economic problem. But it holds implications for national security according to Erica Consterdine from the University of Sussex's Centre for Migration Research. For her, the failure to consider the importance of these foreign seasonal workers in a post-Brexit world means that "it's looking pretty bad in terms of the security of the food supply chain. It would be disastrous."
So companies like this rely on up to 70,000 foreign workers to pick, sort and pack fruit and vegetables. They are more willing to get their hands dirty for low pay. The same is the case in many other British industries. Not many of us want to be employed cleaning up a slaughter house, for example, so eastern European workers are vital.
But this arrangement is now seriously at risk following the Brexit vote. The British Growers Association has warned that if these seasonal workers are not given special permits to enter the country, the whole industry will be in dire straits. Labour shortages would probably force producers to close or relocate overseas.
This might seem like just another economic problem. But it holds implications for national security according to Erica Consterdine from the University of Sussex's Centre for Migration Research. For her, the failure to consider the importance of these foreign seasonal workers in a post-Brexit world means that "it's looking pretty bad in terms of the security of the food supply chain. It would be disastrous."
Farmers are used to looking into the future. Their livelihoods depend on taking a decent guess about everything from the weather to market forces. But a recent survey reveals that a new level of uncertainty looms on the horizon for post-Brexit farming in Britain. Many in the survey said they were experiencing increased difficulty in recruiting seasonal workers since the EU referendum. Some suggested these labour shortages could result in a decrease in domestic food production followed by inflated prices of some produce caused by a total reliance on imports. These shortages are not the result of any enforced changes in legislation, as Brexit negotiations have yet to be completed. This means that even if something like the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) (which enabled a set quota of Eastern European workers to come and work on labour-short farms) is reintroduced, the industry might still be in hot water.
Many in the survey said they were experiencing increased difficulty in recruiting seasonal workers since the EU referendum. Some suggested these labour shortages could result in a decrease in domestic food production followed by inflated prices of some produce caused by a total reliance on imports.
These shortages are not the result of any enforced changes in legislation, as Brexit negotiations have yet to be completed. This means that even if something like the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) (which enabled a set quota of Eastern European workers to come and work on labour-short farms) is reintroduced, the industry might still be in hot water.
In order to get British unemployed workers to do seasonal work like fruit picking, the following five reforms would have to take place: The entire benefits system would have to be radically altered to allow people to sign off and sign on again easily and without sanctions. The in-work benefits system (housing benefit, tax credits, child tax credits) would have to be radically altered to allow someone who was registered at a specific address for most of the year to be able to keep their home at that address over the period during which they were temporarily housed elsewhere near the cropland/orchards. Farmers would have to pay their seasonal workers enough so that doing a season's work picking fruit would be financially attractive to British workers. And would likely have to schedule their picking work into 40-hour weeks with two days off. Government would have to come up with some real, solid incentives to benefit anyone who's willing tp spend a season picking fruit, besides the ability to save up a nice little packet of money. Supermarkets would have to stop the practice of screwing farmers down so that supermarkets maximise profits for themselves and minimise profits for farmers, with knock-on effects on farm labourer wages. And finally: Consumers would have to accept that if you want fresh fruit in season, hand-picked by British workers, it's going to be expensive. More expensive than when fruit is picked by migrant workers who aren't being paid minimum wage. As none of these reforms are at all likely, I anticipate that one of the knock-on effects of Brexit is either even more illegal immigrants working under highly adverse conditions to which government enforcers turn a blind eye because "everyone knows" we need them: or else, the complete collapse of most farming that requires seasonal picking labour; even more food imported from overseas.
More expensive than when fruit is picked by migrant workers who aren't being paid minimum wage.
As none of these reforms are at all likely, I anticipate that one of the knock-on effects of Brexit is either even more illegal immigrants working under highly adverse conditions to which government enforcers turn a blind eye because "everyone knows" we need them: or else, the complete collapse of most farming that requires seasonal picking labour; even more food imported from overseas.
The political changes on the other hand, well that doesn't sound likely to happen.
Minimum wage remains minimum wage, and local produce remains local produce with local margins. The numbers only change if the produce is for export (mostly not) or if workers are hired from abroad because locals won't do the work (possible, but increasingly expensive.)
Just because import tariffs make foreign food more expensive doesn't mean the local economy grows automatically to take up the slack. There's still the possibility of a dead zone in which affordable local prices don't cover costs even as foreign prices become completely unaffordable.
This has the makings of a complete market failure. Combine an impoverished population which can't afford to pay a realistic price for food, with farmers who can't afford to stay in business without subsidies (nonexistent) or cheap labour (also nonexistent), and the most likely outcome is bankrupt farmers and food shortages.
The worst case is an authoritarian dictatorship which forces people to work on farms at gun point. Worryingly, this may be the only practical way to solve the problem - short of an even more extreme measure, such as cancelling Brexit.
In the Netherlands there have been a few nasty schemes of farming companies that included (compulsory) housing and meals for seasonal workers at the farm were they working, and that proceeded to rip seasonal workers off by withholding up to 90 percent of their paycheck as compensation...
I hear that compensation rip off is done by a lot of model agencies. Schengen is toast!
ahem Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
Net effect: Most people will have to spend a higher - sometimes much higher - share of their income for food. Other expenses will have to be cut, such has vacation jaunts in the Canaries or Ibiza, not to mention farther flung destinations. Easy Jet and other carriers will suffer along with Cook, Thomson and other travel businesses.
Looks like a more frugal life ahead, like it was for most Britons in the 1950s and 60s...
And the poorer and more likely to be needy the person, the smaller the amount of land likely to be available to them. Growing some herbs on a window ledge may be the realistic option keep to the Fen Causeway
There have been times and places in the past where it was simply not profitable for market-oriented farmers to pay for labor. This led to rather rapid shifts to smaller owner-operated farms, where family labor was highly motivated to work their own farm because they actually profited from their own labor.
Not terribly likely in the modern situation, for all the reasons mentioned elsewhere in the thread. I'd also like to toss out compulsory schooling as another reason for the decline in willingness to do farm labor. People get used to living and working in a certain way, and for kids who are used to being imprisoned indoors for 8 hours a day most of the year, the transition to working outside is just a bridge too far.
Also, it is one thing for students to slum it for a couple of months in the summer doing manual work and living in dingy accommodation - we've (nearly) all done it - and quite another thing to aspire to such work as a career. In my experience (in the 1970's) such work was nearly always done by foreign (including a lot of Irish) students in the UK and wasn't the done thing for British students who seemed to have grants or other reasons for not having to tolerate a subsistence living.
It would require a huge social transformation in the UK for such work to become acceptable for middle class UK students again, especially if foreign students are also discouraged from attending UK colleges by higher (relative) fees and /or onerous visa requirements. At the moment even subsistence UK wages are attractive if you come from a very low wage economy like Romania, but if the value of Sterling falls much further and the economy in Romania improves, that attractiveness could diminish very rapidly. Index of Frank's Diaries
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