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Farmers are used to looking into the future. Their livelihoods depend on taking a decent guess about everything from the weather to market forces. But a recent survey reveals that a new level of uncertainty looms on the horizon for post-Brexit farming in Britain. Many in the survey said they were experiencing increased difficulty in recruiting seasonal workers since the EU referendum. Some suggested these labour shortages could result in a decrease in domestic food production followed by inflated prices of some produce caused by a total reliance on imports. These shortages are not the result of any enforced changes in legislation, as Brexit negotiations have yet to be completed. This means that even if something like the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) (which enabled a set quota of Eastern European workers to come and work on labour-short farms) is reintroduced, the industry might still be in hot water.
Many in the survey said they were experiencing increased difficulty in recruiting seasonal workers since the EU referendum. Some suggested these labour shortages could result in a decrease in domestic food production followed by inflated prices of some produce caused by a total reliance on imports.
These shortages are not the result of any enforced changes in legislation, as Brexit negotiations have yet to be completed. This means that even if something like the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) (which enabled a set quota of Eastern European workers to come and work on labour-short farms) is reintroduced, the industry might still be in hot water.
In order to get British unemployed workers to do seasonal work like fruit picking, the following five reforms would have to take place: The entire benefits system would have to be radically altered to allow people to sign off and sign on again easily and without sanctions. The in-work benefits system (housing benefit, tax credits, child tax credits) would have to be radically altered to allow someone who was registered at a specific address for most of the year to be able to keep their home at that address over the period during which they were temporarily housed elsewhere near the cropland/orchards. Farmers would have to pay their seasonal workers enough so that doing a season's work picking fruit would be financially attractive to British workers. And would likely have to schedule their picking work into 40-hour weeks with two days off. Government would have to come up with some real, solid incentives to benefit anyone who's willing tp spend a season picking fruit, besides the ability to save up a nice little packet of money. Supermarkets would have to stop the practice of screwing farmers down so that supermarkets maximise profits for themselves and minimise profits for farmers, with knock-on effects on farm labourer wages. And finally: Consumers would have to accept that if you want fresh fruit in season, hand-picked by British workers, it's going to be expensive. More expensive than when fruit is picked by migrant workers who aren't being paid minimum wage. As none of these reforms are at all likely, I anticipate that one of the knock-on effects of Brexit is either even more illegal immigrants working under highly adverse conditions to which government enforcers turn a blind eye because "everyone knows" we need them: or else, the complete collapse of most farming that requires seasonal picking labour; even more food imported from overseas.
More expensive than when fruit is picked by migrant workers who aren't being paid minimum wage.
As none of these reforms are at all likely, I anticipate that one of the knock-on effects of Brexit is either even more illegal immigrants working under highly adverse conditions to which government enforcers turn a blind eye because "everyone knows" we need them: or else, the complete collapse of most farming that requires seasonal picking labour; even more food imported from overseas.
The political changes on the other hand, well that doesn't sound likely to happen.
Minimum wage remains minimum wage, and local produce remains local produce with local margins. The numbers only change if the produce is for export (mostly not) or if workers are hired from abroad because locals won't do the work (possible, but increasingly expensive.)
Just because import tariffs make foreign food more expensive doesn't mean the local economy grows automatically to take up the slack. There's still the possibility of a dead zone in which affordable local prices don't cover costs even as foreign prices become completely unaffordable.
This has the makings of a complete market failure. Combine an impoverished population which can't afford to pay a realistic price for food, with farmers who can't afford to stay in business without subsidies (nonexistent) or cheap labour (also nonexistent), and the most likely outcome is bankrupt farmers and food shortages.
The worst case is an authoritarian dictatorship which forces people to work on farms at gun point. Worryingly, this may be the only practical way to solve the problem - short of an even more extreme measure, such as cancelling Brexit.
In the Netherlands there have been a few nasty schemes of farming companies that included (compulsory) housing and meals for seasonal workers at the farm were they working, and that proceeded to rip seasonal workers off by withholding up to 90 percent of their paycheck as compensation...
I hear that compensation rip off is done by a lot of model agencies. Schengen is toast!
ahem Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
Net effect: Most people will have to spend a higher - sometimes much higher - share of their income for food. Other expenses will have to be cut, such has vacation jaunts in the Canaries or Ibiza, not to mention farther flung destinations. Easy Jet and other carriers will suffer along with Cook, Thomson and other travel businesses.
Looks like a more frugal life ahead, like it was for most Britons in the 1950s and 60s...
And the poorer and more likely to be needy the person, the smaller the amount of land likely to be available to them. Growing some herbs on a window ledge may be the realistic option keep to the Fen Causeway
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