Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
If the pound goes down, the relative cost of hiring workers in Britain compared to importing, also goes down. And if it is a hard Brexit with customs on agricultural produce that passes the channel the relative cost of hiring in Britain goes down even more.

The political changes on the other hand, well that doesn't sound likely to happen.

by fjallstrom on Mon Jul 3rd, 2017 at 02:03:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The cost of hiring doesn't go down relative to the UK economy.

Minimum wage remains minimum wage, and local produce remains local produce with local margins. The numbers only change if the produce is for export (mostly not) or if workers are hired from abroad because locals won't do the work (possible, but increasingly expensive.)

Just because import tariffs make foreign food more expensive doesn't mean the local economy grows automatically to take up the slack. There's still the possibility of a dead zone in which affordable local prices don't cover costs even as foreign prices become completely unaffordable.

This has the makings of a complete market failure. Combine an impoverished population which can't afford to pay a realistic price for food, with farmers who can't afford to stay in business without subsidies (nonexistent) or cheap labour (also nonexistent), and the most likely outcome is bankrupt farmers and food shortages.

The worst case is an authoritarian dictatorship which forces people to work on farms at gun point. Worryingly, this may be the only practical way to solve the problem - short of an even more extreme measure, such as cancelling Brexit.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 3rd, 2017 at 03:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with forcing people to work on farms (more likely at risk of losing benefits) is that there's still no housing or transport. It would end up just as expensive as doing things properly, although the compulsion/punishment of the unemployed aspect would probably appeal to the authoritarians

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 3rd, 2017 at 05:00:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Where does the influx of seasonal workers that have been working in the UK currently stay?

In the Netherlands there have been a few nasty schemes of farming companies that included (compulsory) housing and meals for seasonal workers at the farm were they working, and that proceeded to rip seasonal workers off by withholding up to 90 percent of their paycheck as compensation...

by Bjinse on Tue Jul 4th, 2017 at 10:34:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
they live in doss houses or tents. Thanks to austerity local councils simply haven't got the staff to chase up rogue landlords, especially out in the country. And nobody cares about migrant labour anyway.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 4th, 2017 at 04:03:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could be worse. Look at those North Koreans who are 'sent out' by their government to work on Polish fields.

I hear that compensation rip off is done by a lot of model agencies.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Tue Jul 4th, 2017 at 08:45:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
corvée

ahem

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Jul 5th, 2017 at 09:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Even before coming to such extremes, it looks like domestic food will become more expensive without much relief from imported food that will be more expensive too.

Net effect: Most people will have to spend a higher - sometimes much higher - share of their income for food. Other expenses will have to be cut, such has vacation jaunts in the Canaries or Ibiza, not to mention farther flung destinations. Easy Jet and other carriers will suffer along with Cook, Thomson and other travel businesses.

Looks like a more frugal life ahead, like it was for most Britons in the 1950s and 60s...

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Jul 3rd, 2017 at 06:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another way is to mostly eat chips.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Jul 3rd, 2017 at 06:52:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Community and private gardens will likely bloom.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 8th, 2017 at 05:35:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Due to ridiculous land prices, gardens are generally handkerchief sized.

And the poorer and more likely to be needy the person, the smaller the amount of land likely to be available to them. Growing some herbs on a window ledge may be the realistic option

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 9th, 2017 at 01:12:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series