As of now, the UK is out of the EU on 1/4/2019 and there is no agreement as to what happens afterwards, not even a continuation of the "blue skies" agreement under which there are no restrictions on flights between the EU and UK and vice versa.

So unless one posits the supposition that the adults will take over the discussions at some stage, there will be no flights, and possibly no trade between the EU and UK from that date as Customs officials may not have any directive as to whether they should "clear" goods in transit across the EU/UK border, and if so, what tariffs they should apply.

So we are moving towards a game of chicken, where the objective is to see who blinks first at this "appalling vista," to borrow a phrase. There are many enough economic interests amongst EU and UK industries who would welcome the exclusion of their counterparts and competitors from their respective markets.  

So it is not a slam dunk, open and shut case that such a scenario will be avoided.  Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, who has lately been talking a surprising amount of sense has been warning of precisely such an outcome.

Michel Barnier, chief EU negotiator, has said from the outset that there are no winners from Brexit, and that the best we can do is damage limitation.  Unfortunately, there is no guarantee we will succeed in doing even that.

Index of Frank's Diaries