The SPD, having hit rock bottom, having been crushed by the CDU in successive grand coalitions, having been sucked dry, has at least one small satisfaction: they can now show the middle finger to the CDU, refuse another grand coalition and 'sentence' them to Jamaica.

It's not just a three-party coalition but actually four: CDU/CSU/FDP/Greens. First, they need to get buy-in from the CSU who suffered a ten points loss in Bavaria and have to fight a state election next year. The analysis by CSU chief Seehofer is unequivocal: they left a hole open in the "right flank" and need to close it. That of course will clash with the more lefty Greens. Mix into that the FDP who stylize themselves as fresh and don't want to be sucked dry again either (bad memories from 2009-2013) and would like to play opposition. This constellation will put the government on the hot seat. With no clear successor visible for Merkel in the CDU, I can see a rather ugly end for her chancelorship.

In the TV shows you could almost see the CDU and FDP personnel begging the SPD guys to think about continuing the government. But nope. Things are very bad but this is a very satisfying FU.

_{Schengen is toast!}