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More optimism about a Brexit deal in Brussels. Less in London - Eurointelligence
What we find particularly significant was the intervention by Angela Merkel who urged both sides to show compromise. As the FT reported this morning some observers saw in her remarks a message that the EU negotiating team should rethink its approach to the Irish border. She also stressed that in the event of a no-deal Brexit there would be a hard border in Ireland, something the Irish government still seems to be in denial about. Her intervention seems to have puzzled some of those present. We are far less puzzled. If you know about Germany's massive dependence on trade with the UK, the last thing Germany needs right now is a hard Brexit. Germany supported a united EU front against the UK. One of the Brexit predictions we made was that Germany would soften its line as talks headed into the final phase. This seems to be happening now.

Would a no-deal Brexit automatically imply a hard border in Ireland?
by Bernard on Sun Oct 21st, 2018 at 10:16:38 PM EST
yes, because no deal means no trade arrangements.

However, the real push for no deal isn't coming from Germany or the EU, it's coming from the lunatic right in the UK who wish us to become a low wage, no regulation offshore tax haven whilst they plunder the UK or any assets to sell off and make money.

Then they'll all retire to the south of France where they all own dachas

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2018 at 06:51:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AFAICT: yes


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 22nd, 2018 at 03:11:29 PM EST
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The linked Eurointelligence article is a good example of Brits not understanding the European Union as a political project.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 22nd, 2018 at 03:13:49 PM EST
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Actually, even though the outfit is nominally based in London, it looks like the principals do include three Germans and one Spaniard (not totally unknown from ET denizens).
by Bernard on Mon Oct 22nd, 2018 at 04:32:49 PM EST
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I'd diagnose Munchau as suffering from Stockholm syndrome. He's been doing contortions to justify why Brexit must happen since the referendum.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2018 at 09:12:19 AM EST
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Shout out to Megs... merci Bernard...

PS. I'm not sure Merkel has all that much clout left... let me rephrase, Merkel is very much weakened here, and her recent attempts at "finding compromise" have already shown she's lost power, since they didn't work. For example, her attempts at helping the auto industry avoid the worst payback from the diesel scandals, and resultant coming Fahrverbot (diesel autos not allowed) in frankfurt and other major cities, shows her previous ability to force compromise has waned at best. (I won't go into the details of her attempted compromises here.)

Not to mention, her attempt to keep the government together is on very shaky footing.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - AnaÔs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 23rd, 2018 at 02:38:09 PM EST
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Migs

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - AnaÔs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 23rd, 2018 at 02:38:31 PM EST
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I'm not too sure Merkel is in any different situation to most governments in Europe. There is a crisis in government legitimacy which means that far right/nationalist movements are gaining ground, governments are losing majorities, and increasingly shaky minority governments based on unstable coalitions are barely hanging on.

Varadkers' Party, Fine Gael only have 49 seats out of a parliament of 158 seats and are dependent on Fianna Fail abstaining on confidence votes and a number of independents of varying hues and allegiances. Talks are ongoing as to whether this arrangement can continue. Traditional coalition partners like Labour and the Greens have been decimated.

Theresa May's problems have been well documented, but how many other Governments in Europe are barely hanging on? The most remarkable political achievement of recent times has been the unanimity of the EU27 in the Brexit negotiations. It seems to be about the only thing they can agree on.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2018 at 07:13:01 PM EST
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Fahrverbot (diesel autos not allowed) in frankfurt and other major cities

Municipalism, my friend. Your friend. Everybody's friend. The return of democracy, and of constructive disobedience. There is an epoch-making shift going on, and it's a Good Thing (except when it's the hard right doing it of course)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Oct 24th, 2018 at 09:23:00 AM EST
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Subsidarity is not well understood.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Oct 24th, 2018 at 09:32:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Oct 22nd, 2018 at 03:40:45 PM EST
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by Bernard on Wed Oct 24th, 2018 at 07:28:47 PM EST
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Any and every Irish government which attempts to erect customs posts at the land border with N. Ireland will fall, possibly never to be seen again. We fought a civil war over the issue and won't open that can of worms again. If the EU thinks that Theresa May is difficult to deal with, try dealing with an Irish government with it's back to the wall. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Even if there is wholesale smuggling across the border, some other means will have to be found to deal with it - random, roving customs patrols; trusted trader schemes; checks at Irish air and sea ports etc.

There is a long an honoured tradition in Ireland of laws formally enacted but totally ignored in practice dating back to the time when the British ruled and the Irish subverted wherever possible. This has been in rapid decline in recent years, but can always come back. Think of the black economy in Italy, Greece, Spain and many Eastern European states. It is characteristic of poorer, less rule bound societies or more divided societies with less consensus around the methods of government.

My German relations coming to Ireland used to be astounded at the very relaxed attitude to law enforcement and observance in Ireland when compared to "Vee haf rulz" Germany. That culture has changed in recent years, but you can force an Irish government to sign any law you like, it simply won't happen in practice. Ireland will veto anything it can in the EU until that situation changes. It is simply an existential issue for the Irish political establishment and many more besides.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2018 at 05:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
some other means will have to be found to deal with it - random, roving customs patrols; trusted trader schemes; checks at Irish air and sea ports etc.
That should be OK with the EU27, if it works for Ireland. After all, fudging a solution is a time honored tradition in the EU.
by Bernard on Tue Oct 23rd, 2018 at 01:32:49 PM EST
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Controls at air and sea ports can certainly prevent smuggling to the EU26, it's in the Irish Market where smuggled goods may be rife. Not too serious if it is merely some paperwork and tax evasion by private individuals and small businesses etc. and it should be possible to control the Tescos of this world with VAT style import duty collection and on site customs inspections. But we don't want "chlorinated chickens" here either.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2018 at 07:01:20 PM EST
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yet it's actually the foodstuffs and the regulations involved that is the sharp end of border situation.

Plus, I imagine that the EU26 may be minded to turn a blind eye if the trade across the border is a trickle. But if it begins to become in any way substantial then they may become much lesss amused.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2018 at 08:32:11 PM EST
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archive

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Oct 24th, 2018 at 06:18:04 AM EST
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way-back cranking machine, 2009

So may I hasten to add: There are always rules to be had. Not those rules, the other rules.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Oct 24th, 2018 at 06:25:30 AM EST
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