Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Brexit divorce agreement collapses after Raab and Barnier meet
A tentative deal on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement reached at technical level in Brussels Sunday collapsed following a meeting between EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his U.K. counterpart Dominic Raab.

An EU diplomat said that Barnier would make a statement about the state of play in the talks Sunday evening after updating EU ambassadors.

Indications that a tentative deal at negotiator level was close, began to emerge mid-afternoon Sunday, when the U.K.'s Department for Exiting the EU released a statement that Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab would make an unscheduled trip to Brussels.

"With several big issues still to resolve, including the Northern Ireland backstop, it was jointly agreed that face-to-face talks were necessary ahead of this week's October European Council," a spokesperson said in a statement.

Or have we entered the "Last Minute Brinkmanship" phase?
by Bernard on Sun Oct 14th, 2018 at 06:05:20 PM EST
Yes, we are moving into the final phase now. Theresa May's chance of getting any deal through parliament depend on a majority being convinced that her deal is the best deal possibility and there is no time and no possibility of negotiating a better one.

So the choice will come down to May's deal or no deal. The plan seems to be to delay agreement until Mid-November and force a vote just prior to the Xmas recess. There will then be no time to call a mid-winter general election or referendum.

My best guess is still that May will lose that vote through a combination of DUP and hard Brexiteer opposition. Corbyn will insist on a general election - even though mid-winter elections are against all tradition in the UK. Hard Brexiteers will mount a leadership challenge.

May might even try to come back to the EU Council looking for a better deal. I doubt she will receive a sympathetic response.  She has already reneged on the December "Backstop" deal and there is no guarantee that she can get any deal through parliament.

Logically she should resign and make way for someone like BoJo who will enthusiastically embrace the no-deal scenario, all the time upbraiding the EU for their failure to be "flexible" and agree a deal. He would get an even less sympathetic reception on the EU Council.

In contrast to the UK, the EU will have been making serious preparations of a no deal Brexit. Mini-deals to enable food and medicines to be imported/exported and continued landing rights for UK aircraft may be agreed, but only if the €40 Billion exit payment has been paid, or some sort of "administrative" charges are imposed.

Why should the UK continue to enjoy the benefits of EU membership when it is no longer a member and has welshed on its commitments? It could get really nasty...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 12:36:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Raab is an ultra, he has already suggested that the UK has compromised as much as is possible and it's time for the EU to bend. I'm sure that, when he met Barnier, he re-affirmed that intransigence and Barnier more or less threw him out.

We're at the point now where I doubt there will be a deal to be offered to Parliament. After all, it's one thing to srongarm a position within the Cabinet at Chequers, but it's entirely another to agree even the most basic deal with the EU when the first item on the agenda, the Irish border, has no viable solution given the "red lines" within the Conservative party.

So, we really are looking at no deal. Because these people are either idiots or so entranced by their own personal chances for enrichment they are blind to the consequences for everybody else.

I suspect that within a year of no deal brexit, both Scotland and Ulster will have begun the preparations to leave the UK.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 06:58:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It looks like the only Brexit that can pass Parliament is one that has Labour's stamp of approval. May can't possibly get the DUP back on board -- they have effectively bolted already -- and keep remainer (remainder?) Conservatives.

Or could she be saved by the parliamentary Blairites? Please, no.

In any case, any Brexit deal that could be approved by the UE27 and Parliament leaves her without a majority, because the DUP will be in permanent paroxysm.

Or you could have an election. My personal preference, because it would be democratic.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 02:34:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An election may be preferable, but it won't save us now. There just isn't time.

If there is any saving the situation, it will come shold a cross-party coalition emerge to vote through a soft brexit, probably including staying within the customs union, simply to save the nation.

This would pass, but they'd have to call an election immediately after to prevent May being displaced by an ultra and changing everything.

Of course, such an action would not just end Theresa May's stay in 10 Downing St, it may well initiate a split in the Tory party from which they cannot recover.

that said, I don't think May could bring herself to do it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 05:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From what I can tell it's always been about the Tory Party for May and the rest of the UK can go fuck itself.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 10:06:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From the start of this silliness the Leavers have been totally & completely wrong about the actual state-of-play.  The Leavers thought they could state their terms, stick to them, and the EU would ultimately agree.  This, in part, stems from the fact Brits never fully understood the fundamental and underlying political nature of the EU.  For the Brits it was always about making money.  Which is why the Leavers keep harping about things economic and why they think the EU will cave.

Fundamentally, Anglo-Americans are grotesquely ignorant of how the rest of the world ticks but don't know they are grotesquely ignorant.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 10:19:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bingo, you nailed it.
A nation of shopkeepers. The ignorance, as you aver, is blinding.
The business of America is business, Brexit is brexit.

Sic transit gloria mundi.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 11:43:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian - Polly Toynbee - Feel no pity for Theresa May - this Brexit bind is of her own making

Feel no pity for May. At first she seemed plausible as the least incapable pair of hands on offer. But she threw away every chance to escape this Brexit dead-end by turning to her extreme wing. In the more than 18 excruciating months since she recklessly triggered article 50 with no plan, nothing has changed. The Brexit conundrum remains where it began, except she has made it far worse. There stands the same giant boulder in the road that is Northern Ireland's borders. All she has contributed is mutually contradictory "red lines" that made any solution impossible. Frictionless trade, with no adjudication by the European court of justice, with no customs union, no single market and no hard border in Ireland: this was not any old cake-and-eat-it but a bankrupted Patisserie Valerie confection. And there she has stayed.

Patisserie Valeire is a high street french cake shop chain in the UK that went bankrupt almost overnight with little or no warning. The CEO was a Tory contributor who loudly preached the gospel of entrepreneuralism and the necessity of understanding cashflows in your business from his pulpit in the Times. I think Polly was intending some irony, but many would not know of the CEO's fiscal sanctimonious bullshit.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 16th, 2018 at 01:21:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Plan B is as bug-house as anything May has proposed.  

Some weird and undefined "five year transition period?"  Why the devil would the EU go for that?  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 17th, 2018 at 03:38:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Top Diaries

Occasional Series