Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Yes, we are moving into the final phase now. Theresa May's chance of getting any deal through parliament depend on a majority being convinced that her deal is the best deal possibility and there is no time and no possibility of negotiating a better one.

So the choice will come down to May's deal or no deal. The plan seems to be to delay agreement until Mid-November and force a vote just prior to the Xmas recess. There will then be no time to call a mid-winter general election or referendum.

My best guess is still that May will lose that vote through a combination of DUP and hard Brexiteer opposition. Corbyn will insist on a general election - even though mid-winter elections are against all tradition in the UK. Hard Brexiteers will mount a leadership challenge.

May might even try to come back to the EU Council looking for a better deal. I doubt she will receive a sympathetic response.  She has already reneged on the December "Backstop" deal and there is no guarantee that she can get any deal through parliament.

Logically she should resign and make way for someone like BoJo who will enthusiastically embrace the no-deal scenario, all the time upbraiding the EU for their failure to be "flexible" and agree a deal. He would get an even less sympathetic reception on the EU Council.

In contrast to the UK, the EU will have been making serious preparations of a no deal Brexit. Mini-deals to enable food and medicines to be imported/exported and continued landing rights for UK aircraft may be agreed, but only if the €40 Billion exit payment has been paid, or some sort of "administrative" charges are imposed.

Why should the UK continue to enjoy the benefits of EU membership when it is no longer a member and has welshed on its commitments? It could get really nasty...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 12:36:42 AM EST
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