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8 - 14 October 2018 | 137 comments (137 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
US politics (4.00 / 2)
Electoral-vote.com
We may be in the middle of a historic shift in the two-party system. Instead of a liberal party and a conservative party, we may soon have a women's party and a men's party. Politico has a long article on how a trend that has been in evidence for decades is accelerating: Women are leaving the GOP in droves. Donald Trump's habit of bragging about grabbing women by the pu**y started the more rapid movement, and the GOP's treatment of Christine Blasey Ford continued it. The big question Politico looked at is how permanent this shift might be.

[...]

Politico's conversations with Republican pollsters, strategists, and operatives, confirm that there is a significant problem here. In 1994, 42% of women identified as Republican. Now only 25% fully identify as Republican. Shifts like this matter. In 2014, white college-educated women supported Democrats for Congress by 2 points. Now they support Democrats by 22 points. If they are fired up and vote in 4 weeks, it could affect many races. Working-class women are still largely with Trump, though.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Oct 9th, 2018 at 11:22:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US politics (none / 1)
I think both that article and the Politico article it is based on does some very selective reading.

Here is the Pew trends: http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/2_2-14 /

Identifies fully as Republican:
1994, men 35%, women 31%
2017, men 28%, women 25%

Identifies or leans towards Republican:
1994, men 52%, women 42%
2017, men 48%, women 37%

So, the Republicans has lost support compared to 1994, among both men and women.

What has also happened is that the Democrats has gained support among women voters who used to lean neither way.

Also, both parties (but more R) has lost male voters from the "identifies fully" category to the "leans to" category. 34% of men identified as independent in 1994, and 42% now.

by fjallstrom on Tue Oct 9th, 2018 at 12:14:51 PM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 1)
Ultimately GOP support will die off.  Literally.  The only age group the GOP 'owns' is 65+.
 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Oct 12th, 2018 at 12:11:52 AM EST
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Re: US politics (4.00 / 2)
The same words and thoughts of mine in 1960 when JFK got the majority of the youth voters. It didn't quite work out in that fashion.

Recently came across a film by Noam Chomsky from the 1960s - "Manufacturing Consent". Still as actual today than let's say 80 years ago. Not a level playing field with official propaganda pushing the masses continually into policy of war and upheaval. Sit out the ride and protect yourself and your loved ones.

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui on Fri Oct 12th, 2018 at 02:20:21 AM EST
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Re: US politics (4.00 / 4)
I've seen this being promised for decades, but it has yet to happen.

It's even worse in the UK. Some of the Tory Party's biggest contributors are actually dead, making donations in their wills from beyond the grave.

But generally, when there's a state apparatus of propaganda and misdirection, people vote how they're told to. In most "developed" countries that means anything resembling economic populism is strictly off the menu.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Oct 12th, 2018 at 08:23:10 PM EST
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Re: US politics (4.00 / 2)
As Oui and TBG point out, the demographic argument is no clincher. The 65+ cohort do die out, but are replaced by new over 65s with the same set of prejudices. Young people want to change the world, old people have stuff to hang on to, and scare easy.

We may have been right back in the day: don't trust anyone over thirty.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Oct 13th, 2018 at 08:05:32 PM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 1)
Will that be true in the future? The way things are going old people may not have so much stuff beyond their student debt.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Oct 13th, 2018 at 10:45:10 PM EST
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Re: US politics (4.00 / 2)
By that time democracy™ will belong to the past.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Oct 14th, 2018 at 03:59:10 PM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 0)
I'm happy to lose Democracy™.

A bit of a shame about real democracy though.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Oct 14th, 2018 at 08:26:11 PM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 1)
At least you can't lose what you haven't got.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 11:42:30 AM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 1)
With one twist: the new over 65s do include more and more Latinos, Asian and other minorities compared to the present wave of old geezers.

To maintain a white minority rule, more techniques must be used: partisan gerrymandering and massive voters disenfranchisement, preferably ethnic minorities.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Oct 14th, 2018 at 05:18:38 PM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 0)
The underlying dynamic of US elections is the percentage of white people who vote and the 25 and under crowd who don't.  As the predominately white 65+ crowd croaks those votes are lost to the GOP and they aren't being replaced.

This is more-or-less what happened to the Dems when the New Deal generation died off.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 10:32:51 PM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 0)
Soooo, it's the economy?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Oct 16th, 2018 at 12:39:07 AM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 0)
42% I, 29% D, 27% R.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Oct 10th, 2018 at 05:43:36 AM EST
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Re: US politics (none / 0)
Which is why the increase in GOP voting enthusiasm is pretty much meaningless.  The balance of power lies with the Independents.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 15th, 2018 at 10:34:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

8 - 14 October 2018 | 137 comments (137 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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