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If you look at the polls before the last GE there's a huge crash in support for UKIP, which happens at the same time as a huge spike for Labour.

Presumably Labour has more detailed polls that actually quantify the shift. I understand it was something like 1/3 for Labour vs 2/3 for the Tories - enough to be a problem if those votes are lost.

Hence the reluctance to become a Remain party.

This has been a viable but frustrating position for the last couple of years. But now the number of Leavers who also want a People's Vote is increasing. I would love to see what the polls say about that shift.

It's plausible - but could also be wrong - that in a GE, promising a PV would be a campaign winner. I don't think anyone knows for sure without seeing the numbers.

There's also an obvious struggle happening between Corbyn - who really does seem to be a secret Leaver - and the rest of party, where the Remain majority is absolutely clear.

My guess is that the hardcore Leavers just don't care any more. They'll sit out another GE unless there's a change of leadership and a no-deal Brexiter kook takes over the Tories.

So in fact losses would be more obvious for the Tories in a May/Corbyn GE, and coming out pro-PV is an easy winner.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 19th, 2018 at 12:17:40 PM EST
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