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So far Theresa May has won the initial support of her cabinet, although it remains to be seen if there will be any resignations. There are so many potential candidates for the Tory leadership all will be calculating whether remaining a "loyal" member of the cabinet now, or resigning in a huff of principled protest is the better option for endearing themselves with Tory MPs and the Tory faithful - who will ultimately decide the leadership question.

Triggering a leadership contest is the easy part - only 48 MPs have to write to the Chairman of the 1922 committee requesting an election. reportedly, nearly that number had already done so last January. After that 158 Tory MPs have to vote no confidence in her leadership - a more difficult hurdle for Brexiteers to surmount. The question is whether now is the time to topple her. Few want her to lead the party into the next general election, but would it not be better for her to complete the Brexit process and then topple her?

Even if she loses, Brexiteers still have to make sure one of their preferred candidates makes the top two in a series of run-off ballots among MPs. That shouldn't be too hard to do. And then it is down to the Tory party membership who have an average age of 70+ and are reportedly somewhere to the right of Attilla the Hun. That should ensure a hardline Brexiteer succeeds her.

But would the EU be prepared to reopen negotiations with a hard line Prime Minister? I doubt it. It's then either a no deal Brexit or a general election. Whoever wins, there are three options:

  1. May's deal
  2. No deal
  3. A new deal negotiated with a new government if the EU agree to an A.50 extension, which they might only do if there is agreement to put any new deal to a second referendum.

We live in interesting times...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 14th, 2018 at 09:47:36 PM EST
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