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I am not familiar with Westminster timetabling and some of the legal niceties that will have to be addressed, but from a psychological point of view the following timetable seems feasible:
  1. Deal is voted down in Commons before Xmas.
  2. Everyone goes home for a couple of weeks to consider their options. May may try to re-negotiate deal over Xmas and may come up with some minor changes, chiefly to the political declaration. Perhaps she will try to buy off DUP opposition, but they will reject her overtures: "Ulster says NO"
  3. Early January Commons is recalled early from Xmas recess to consider May's new deal. Everyone agrees it is hardly any better than first one, and vote it down again.
  4. The EU make it clear that the negotiations are over.
  5. Late January everyone realises they are heading for no deal and the fully horror of the UK's almost complete lack of preparation for that becomes clear to even the most dim-witted.
  6. In desperation "moderate" MPs in all parties come together to lobby for a second referendum so that voters have the opportunity to take full and direct responsibility for the consequences - or reverse Brexit.
  7. May & Corbyn do a deal to head off growing panic and rebellion in both their parties. They agree second referendum to be followed by GE if May's deal is rejected. Choice is between May's deal or no Brexit.
  8. 2nd. referendum is held by Mid March. EU Coucil agree to accept revocation of A.50 notification is vote is to stay in. In the meantime EU governments/Parliaments acting in parallel ratify May's deal as EU's full and final offer to UK if it chooses Brexit.
  9. If votes is to stay in, nothing changes. If vote is for Brexit, transition period kicks in 29th. March.
  10. If vote is for no Brexit, General and European elections take place early May. Farage retires again. Corbyn elected Prime Minister. Pledges to "reform" EU.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 12:54:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... and everyone gets a pony for Good Friday?

There's one thing that's off the table, and that's Britain participating in the EU elections in May. The UK seats have already been redistributed, for one thing.

Actually, I'm with you until point 7. I don't see Corbyn agreeing to a second referendum

So my version is :

  1. May & Corbyn do a deal to head off growing panic and rebellion in both their parties. They go together to Brussels, extract some token concessions, leave the statement on Final Status deliberately vague, extension of a year to transition period.
  2. They get a majority for Brexit in the Commons from Lab and Con loyalists.
  3. Transition period kicks in 29th. March
  4. General and European elections take place early May. Farage retires again. Corbyn elected Prime Minister. Pledges to "co-operate closely" with EU. Has a couple - three years to define final status.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 12:16:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I find the notion of May and Corbyn working together even more far fetched than my scenario, and I don't think Corbyn's presence would make the EU any more likely to make concessions.

In my scenario, Corbyn agrees to a referendum only if May agrees to a general election if her deal is voted down. The problem is would her MP's even agree to her deal to call a GE in that event, because it would be a case of Turkeys voting for Christmas. So Corbyn would need a legal guarantee of a GE if the referendum goes against May. Is it even possible to pass a compound bill in Parliament providing both for a referendum followed by a GE if the referendum is lost?  Cause no Tory is going to vote for an early GE after a referendum is lost.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 12:51:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tieing the referendum result to a new election is a non-starter on democratic grounds. Many would vote against May's Brexit in order to get an election, and vice versa. Also, turkeys, Christmas.

I agree that Corbyn's presence would make little difference in Brussels (but the promise that the agreement would actually be deliverable might). The main concession they would need is to leave final status hanging, to be negotiated by the winner of the subsequent elections.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 01:17:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect you may be right. It may be impossible for Corbyn to force a general election with the Fixed Term Act even if May loses crunch vote after vote. Really an early election can only happen if both the Government and opposition want it and right now it would be Turkeys voting for Xmas. Winning a referendum may be as good as it gets for him.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 08:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The latest news is that the DUP are on the verge of bailing on the government, and voted against the Tories in the Finance Bill.

The Tories still won the vote, partly because Corbyn and some other Labour MPs weren't present - which is bizarre enough in itself.

Meanwhile Momentum are reporting there are preparations for a snap election.

It's tempting to wonder if there's a mad plan in which a GE effectively becomes a vote on the deal. If May gets a mandate (she won't...) she can go back to Parliament and say "Here's my mandate - now vote for my deal."

This is, even by Tory standards, a completely bonkers idea.

Even more bonkers would be a vote of no confidence from the 1922 Committee in the run-up to an election, in some kind of insane attempt to replace May with an ultra-brexiter before votes are cast.

The next few weeks are likely to be very weird.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 09:24:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They could - but they won't - have a referendum with the three options (remain, negotiated Brexit and no deal Brexit) and instant run off and at the same day have a general election. Then the people could choose what they want done and who should execute it.

What I instead expect is that Corbyn will not wade in, but instead stay at the side and heckle May while calling for a general election, making the Tories own their Brexit.

May will hesitate, waffle and stall. Then she will come up with things it is to late for. Then more stalling and at the last, a desperate move. Which I don't know.

Maybe some owners explain that her post-political fortunes hang in the balance and she (as PM) withdraws the Article 50 declaration and then resigns and cashes the cheques. (Can she? She already did, so it's too late. She can't hear you over all the money flowing in.)

Or maybe some owners prefers to rule in hell and gives her cheques if she does a hard Brexit, in which case she just stalls until April and then blames Brussels and Corbyn.

Maybe the owners call a Tory conference and explain one on one how much dirt they have on the MPs since their boarding school days and wouldn't they prefer some nice cash? And then suddenly the deal passes (with the help of "rebellious" boarding school Labour MPs).

I dunno. I just think that it will continue to be a lesson in how not to exit the EU.

by fjallstrom on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 11:27:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"I think you should be more explicit here in step five."

by asdf on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 09:38:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh OK... John McDonnell gives us some more clues about how Labour gets to do Brexit

John McDonnell: Labour should form minority government if May deal fails

So we diverge at point 5.

5. May's government is incapable of passing any legislation at all. Her Majesty asks Jeremy Corbyn to form a government.

Not sure what comes next. But it sounds like fun.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Nov 21st, 2018 at 02:52:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... In other news, May no longer commands a majority in the Commons. She has not yet been defeated, but has accepted a number of opposition amendments to avoid defeat, because the DUP is abstaining.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Nov 21st, 2018 at 02:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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