Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I am not familiar with Westminster timetabling and some of the legal niceties that will have to be addressed, but from a psychological point of view the following timetable seems feasible:
  1. Deal is voted down in Commons before Xmas.
  2. Everyone goes home for a couple of weeks to consider their options. May may try to re-negotiate deal over Xmas and may come up with some minor changes, chiefly to the political declaration. Perhaps she will try to buy off DUP opposition, but they will reject her overtures: "Ulster says NO"
  3. Early January Commons is recalled early from Xmas recess to consider May's new deal. Everyone agrees it is hardly any better than first one, and vote it down again.
  4. The EU make it clear that the negotiations are over.
  5. Late January everyone realises they are heading for no deal and the fully horror of the UK's almost complete lack of preparation for that becomes clear to even the most dim-witted.
  6. In desperation "moderate" MPs in all parties come together to lobby for a second referendum so that voters have the opportunity to take full and direct responsibility for the consequences - or reverse Brexit.
  7. May & Corbyn do a deal to head off growing panic and rebellion in both their parties. They agree second referendum to be followed by GE if May's deal is rejected. Choice is between May's deal or no Brexit.
  8. 2nd. referendum is held by Mid March. EU Coucil agree to accept revocation of A.50 notification is vote is to stay in. In the meantime EU governments/Parliaments acting in parallel ratify May's deal as EU's full and final offer to UK if it chooses Brexit.
  9. If votes is to stay in, nothing changes. If vote is for Brexit, transition period kicks in 29th. March.
  10. If vote is for no Brexit, General and European elections take place early May. Farage retires again. Corbyn elected Prime Minister. Pledges to "reform" EU.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 20th, 2018 at 12:54:59 AM EST
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