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Then, if Corbyn wins the election on the promise of holding a second referendum on whatever deal he negotiates, the EU would be faced with the choice of no deal or the possibility of the whole Brexit project being reversed - should they be prepared to offer an extension sufficient to negotiate a deal and hold a referendum.
Of course this would all run into the European Parliament elections, but there is no reason why those elections cannot be held - in the UK as well - on the understanding that the successful UK candidates will lose their seats whenever/if Brexit occurs. Contingency plans have been drawn up to that effect.
Holding EU parliament elections in the UK in May might also be a useful proxy for a referendum, providing a more authoritative indication of pro/anti EU feeling at that time, although there is also the risk of a high protest vote at how long and difficult the process is proving to be.
However with UKIP currently on 16 seats, and the Liberal Democrats on only 1, it would not be difficult for the pro-EU camp to register very significant gains and thus a psychological advantage heading into a second referendum, if there is to be one.
But as I said above, they whole scenario is littered with so many maybes, ifs and buts, that the net probability of such an outcome must be very low. Possibly as many as 6 sequential key events/decision points would have to go in a particular direction, and if we ascribe an arbitrary 50:50 probability to each one, that results in a net 1 in 128 or a less than 1% probability of a particular end outcome occurring.
For me the key events/decision points are:
However I think it is worthwhile to work through the various stages a process would have to go through to result in a particular outcome. There are a huge number of possibilities, and as Colman has suggested above, possibly no particular outcome that has a very high probability of occurring.
Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 20 31 comments
by Oui - Jun 21 4 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jun 20 2 comments
by gmoke - Jun 18 7 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 13 59 comments
by Oui - Jun 16 17 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 10 29 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 7 28 comments
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by Frank Schnittger - Jun 2031 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jun 202 comments
by gmoke - Jun 187 comments
by Oui - Jun 1617 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 1359 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 1029 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 728 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 524 comments
by Oui - Jun 313 comments
by gmoke - Jun 32 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 295 comments
by IdiotSavant - May 29
by Frank Schnittger - May 2724 comments
by Oui - May 271 comment