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You paint a more hopeful picture than I am currently getting from UK media. There is no new news about Brexit. It can be ignored. The BBC has moved on to the USA mid-terms, climate change and policing policy.

While many businesses may be in despair about the lack of certainty, the rest of the population will continue to dismiss those 80 No-Deal articles as Project Fear 2.0. Not until there is grid-lock at Dover, a lorry park on the M26, Cumbrian and Welsh hill farmers unable to export lamb, and a major car manufacturer announcing the closure of their production plant (as predicted by Patrick Minford) is there a chance of enough people believing that 'they got the vote wrong'.

As the clock ticks, time is becoming of the essence. The Guardian recently pointed to a lengthy article by Lexington Communications which works out the timeline for UK Parliament to get the necessary legislation in place, and taking the 41 days of Mastrich Treaty parliamentary discussions as a template.

It begins

Approving a government motion on the Withdrawal Agreement is just one of two steps needed for the UK to ratify the deal. The second is the passage of primary legislation to implement the Withdrawal Agreement, which must receive Royal Assent before the Brexit deadline of 29 March 2019.

It concludes

If things start to go wrong during parliamentary scrutiny of the bill the government runs the risk of missing the deadline for ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement. In such circumstances it may become necessary to appeal for an extension of the Article 50 process - particularly given the knock-on effects that problems in UK ratification could have for the process in the European Parliament. Even if the EU 27 agreed to an extension, unanimously (as is required under Article 50), the practical limit is another six weeks. After that, the UK would need to field candidates for the European Parliament elections. All this underlines the enduring truth that the Brexit process will remain beset by uncertainty and risk until the very end - whenever that is.

I am not qualified to analyse that paper, but at best it semms the UK may need goodwill from the Commission and EU parliament, goodwill which certain Englishmen have done their utmost to destroy.

by oldremainmer48 on Fri Nov 2nd, 2018 at 03:08:38 PM EST
The UK media has gone relatively quiet on the actual negotiations themselves, mainly because the actual participants aren't leaking as much. The real bargaining is currently being done and an inappropriate leak could derail the whole process. The DUP rightly smell a sell-out but have no hard evidence to confirm this yet.

Negotiations between professional negotiators rarely fail, because all appreciate the need to make the deal as palatable as possible for the other side. The problems arise when they bring back their proposed deal to their principles. Have they managed expectations sufficiently, or are key principles no longer on board?

Ultimately it will be a few swing votes in the Commons that will decide the issue. Can they be bought off, or persuaded that the alternative is even worse? So far I remain a skeptic - there are still a lot of wildly unrealistic expectations out there - and some may not realize there may be no second bite at the cherry.

Boris et al will shout ME ME ME, I will get you a better deal. I don't know UK parliamentarians well enough to judge how many might buy that line all over again.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2018 at 08:07:52 PM EST
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