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While many businesses may be in despair about the lack of certainty, the rest of the population will continue to dismiss those 80 No-Deal articles as Project Fear 2.0. Not until there is grid-lock at Dover, a lorry park on the M26, Cumbrian and Welsh hill farmers unable to export lamb, and a major car manufacturer announcing the closure of their production plant (as predicted by Patrick Minford) is there a chance of enough people believing that 'they got the vote wrong'.
As the clock ticks, time is becoming of the essence. The Guardian recently pointed to a lengthy article by Lexington Communications which works out the timeline for UK Parliament to get the necessary legislation in place, and taking the 41 days of Mastrich Treaty parliamentary discussions as a template.
Approving a government motion on the Withdrawal Agreement is just one of two steps needed for the UK to ratify the deal. The second is the passage of primary legislation to implement the Withdrawal Agreement, which must receive Royal Assent before the Brexit deadline of 29 March 2019.
If things start to go wrong during parliamentary scrutiny of the bill the government runs the risk of missing the deadline for ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement. In such circumstances it may become necessary to appeal for an extension of the Article 50 process - particularly given the knock-on effects that problems in UK ratification could have for the process in the European Parliament. Even if the EU 27 agreed to an extension, unanimously (as is required under Article 50), the practical limit is another six weeks. After that, the UK would need to field candidates for the European Parliament elections. All this underlines the enduring truth that the Brexit process will remain beset by uncertainty and risk until the very end - whenever that is.
I am not qualified to analyse that paper, but at best it semms the UK may need goodwill from the Commission and EU parliament, goodwill which certain Englishmen have done their utmost to destroy.
Negotiations between professional negotiators rarely fail, because all appreciate the need to make the deal as palatable as possible for the other side. The problems arise when they bring back their proposed deal to their principles. Have they managed expectations sufficiently, or are key principles no longer on board?
Ultimately it will be a few swing votes in the Commons that will decide the issue. Can they be bought off, or persuaded that the alternative is even worse? So far I remain a skeptic - there are still a lot of wildly unrealistic expectations out there - and some may not realize there may be no second bite at the cherry.
Boris et al will shout ME ME ME, I will get you a better deal. I don't know UK parliamentarians well enough to judge how many might buy that line all over again.
Index of Frank's Diaries
by Oui - Jan 23 20 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 14 13 comments
by Oui - Jan 19 17 comments
by Oui - Jan 17 7 comments
by ARGeezer - Jan 17 25 comments
by Oui - Jan 10 112 comments
by Oui - Jan 13 4 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jan 6 8 comments
by Oui - Jan 28
by Oui - Jan 27
by Oui - Jan 2412 comments
by Oui - Jan 2320 comments
by Oui - Jan 1917 comments
by Oui - Jan 177 comments
by ARGeezer - Jan 1725 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 1413 comments
by Oui - Jan 134 comments
by Oui - Jan 131 comment
by Oui - Jan 10112 comments
by Oui - Jan 931 comments
by Oui - Jan 812 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jan 68 comments
by Oui - Jan 6116 comments
by ARGeezer - Jan 541 comments
by Oui - Jan 493 comments
by Oui - Jan 386 comments
by Oui - Jan 214 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 3118 comments