Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
So it was always no deal or no brexit, with no deal being the nuclear option for idiots only.

But, like I said, that is only obvious in hindsight.

In fairness I think I and most other people here have been saying for two years that no-deal was the most likely outcome, such was the gulf in expectations between the Brexiteers and mainstream opinion in the EU.

EU leaders themselves have also been very clear from the outset: the EU cannot offer the UK better terms than its own members enjoy - else why would anyone remain? The Brexit negotiations were always going to be about damage limitation, at best.

What has perhaps become even more clear in hindsight, is that EU leaders had an incentive to offer the UK the worst deal possible, if they still harboured hopes that the UK might change its mind.

And  that is where we are today: The EU leaders aren't celebrating this as a victory, but marking it as a sad and tragic day. No one will say so openly, but most would still be relieved if the UK changed its mind. If not, it will act as a salutary lesson to all other nationalist secessionist elements within the EU.

But the UK now has a clear and concrete choice - No Deal or this Deal - unlike the terms under which the referendum was held. The only way I can see the EU facilitating an extension of A.50 or its cancellation is if there is a referendum or general election in the meantime. And that too is a decision entirely for the UK to make.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 06:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's strong - and increasing - parliamentary opposition to No Deal. And also to this deal. Because it's ridiculous.

So for the first time there has been serious talk about stopping Brexit.

If I had to lay odds, I'd say it's around 60:40 for No Brexit at the moment. It will take a while for the process to get there, but No Deal is only an option for a handful of Tory headbangers, and not for most MPs. Nor for most voters.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 08:42:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is by what mechanism can this be achieved. Under the fixed term act, it's almost impossible to topple May even if she is a lame duck and can't pass critical legislation. If there is a leadership election, Tory rank and file will probably elect a hard Brexiteer.

Tory MPs will hardly agree to a GE - so that leaves a second referendum. Corbyn may be the obstacle here. Is there a majority in the Commons prepared to defy BOTH May and Corbyn? Could you organise a referendum by private members bill or does it have to be government sponsored legislation?

There is so much scope for playing games and brinkmanship and time is running out.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 09:16:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure of the mechanism but apparently if this deal doesn't pass, there's cross party support for a new referendum.

To which I would counsel, be careful what you wsh for

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 10:53:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There has been massive swing towards a second referendum in opinion polls since Raab et al resigned - now 14-20% margin in favour. The remain/leave margin is currently 6-8% in favour of remain. The right/wrong margin is 6/7% in favour of wrong. Not exactly decisive, although the trend seems to be towards remain. Of course everything depends on turnout.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 11:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understand the legislation correctly, if a vote of no confidence is passed, and no new vote of confidence is passed within two weeks, you have got yourself an election. And the Tories has a minority. So either if enough Tories abstains or if DUP freaks out and votes down the May government.
by fjallstrom on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 10:58:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but up until now the DUP has been careful to say they won't vote no confidence, even though they will vote no to everything else. They know they will lose all influence if the Tories are defeated.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 25th, 2018 at 11:07:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Labour had a lick of sense, it would vote to keep May in.  The Tories have to be made to reap the whirlwind.
by rifek on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 04:43:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Depend upon it, Sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully."

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Nov 26th, 2018 at 10:04:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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