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Aren't "no BREXIT" and "May's deal" one and the same choice?

In fact, isn't this the most direct, polite question to the people.

May the UK government accept the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU?
YES or NO
(Choose one response)

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 07:59:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aren't "no BREXIT" and "May's deal" one and the same choice?

:- the answer to that very question demonstrates the philosophical fault line that runs right down the centre of the Conservative party and down the middle of the entire population.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 02:27:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems to me that a fruitful line of argument might to argue that whatever your opinion on leaving the EU is, that this process has been totally screwed up, Article 50 needs to be withdrawn and a good long rethink needs to be had.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 02:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well, the brexit process was doomed the moment the Tories got involved.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 04:36:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's no option for a rethink. The ECJ ruling specifically excludes revoking A50, having a bit of a think and making some hard plans, and sending another A50 letter.

If the UK is in, it's in permanently.

Of course Brexiters don't understand this, but they don't understand anything - including how to stage a successful coup - so there's no point worrying about them now.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 11:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No it doesn't. The EU can't fuck around with internal constitutional processes like that, no matter what the UK propaganda machine says.

You can't withdraw subject to conditions, and you can't weasel the withdrawal of the A50 process and it might be a really bad idea to resubmit an A50 notice a week later, but if you go off and institute internal processes without a predetermined outcome that might result in an A50 notice in five years time or might result in something else they can't do anything about it.

I'm pretty sure Council would go for this too, in the expectation that the whole idea would die in the process.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 10:02:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. Because early next year the EU is going to decide that A50 has to be clarified and amended to remove all possible ambiguity about what can and can't happen, in what order, and also to close the loophole opened by the ECJ ruling which might make it possible to use A50 as a negotiating tactic.

This will probably also lead to all kinds of other legislative changes. We'll see.

I also expect the EU to realise it needs to do a much better job of promoting itself in countries like the UK where the press has been allowed to create a hostile xenophobic environment.

So whatever happens constitutionally, it's going to become much harder for the UK to decide it wants to try to leave again - both internally and externally.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 10:49:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU is going to propose treaty changes to reduce sovereign power next year? I look forward to that.

I still don't understand how A50 is meant to become a negotiating tactic. I don't see how that works. I don't see how the UK example makes it the case. This was always the most likely, most obvious interpretation of whether an A50 notice could be cancelled.


I also expect the EU to realise it needs to do a much better job of promoting itself in countries like the UK where the press has been allowed to create a hostile xenophobic environment.

Oh yes. I think the days of allowing governments blame the EU for things their people don't like and taking credit for the stuff they do are probably over.

In the unlikely case that a rethink still wanted Brexit in five years time, I think a different sort of A50 process would have to be found, because A50 is a piece of shit.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 10:59:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm confused about this argument. Joining the EU is a treaty. A country can unilaterally withdraw from a treaty, or can withdraw under some specific condition of the treaty--in this case, the A50 rules.

  • If the withdrawal is unilateral, then re-entry into the treaty is at the whim of the other side--the EU in this case. A country cannot "demand" to be let back into a treaty that it has withdrawn from. That would over-ride the sovereign power of the other side (the EU countries).

  • If the withdrawal is under the treaty rules, then re-entry may also be controlled by those rules (or, the treaty may be silent on re-entry rules). The withdrawing country may or may not be able to obtain re-entry, depending on what the treaty rules say.
by asdf on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 01:54:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The country has not withdrawn from the treaty until the two year period has expired. Until March 30th nothing has changed in law, they are still members. They continue to be, on the same terms as before if they withdraw the A50 notice.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 01:56:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Note that the A50 judgement was determinedly apolitical and minimal: it was the simplest judgement that made sense without interfering politically - and rebuffed the EU institutions who were looking for more power over the process.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 10:03:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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