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Having agreed she will not lead the Tories into another general election, she has more or less taken the snap general election option off the table for her. So when she loses  the Commons vote she will have two choices - resign and make way for a Brexiteer PM who will pursue a no deal Brexit, or put the issue to a second referendum - for which she would still need Corbyn's support to agree the wording and pass the necessary legislation. But will he agree?

If the choice is May's deal or Remain, he would be in the awkward position of campaigning for Remain - not for the first time - but at least this time he can say he can always trigger A50 again if the EU doesn't agree to his ideas for reform. But for Corbyn the odds are probably better if a Brexiteer becomes PM, because then he can force through a vote of no confidence with the support of Remainer Tories and win the ensuing general election on an anti-no deal platform.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 12:37:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Your comment illustrates the extraordinary convolutions of British political "strategy" which seems to exist in an EU-free vacuum. Or on an island, maybe?

There will not be substantially another agreement with the EU than May's, because the EU (not being the petitioner) is in a situation to lay down its law, and it is not in its interest to give away a great deal more than it has. In the case of a second A50 (after withdrawal of the first), I suggest the EU will be likely to demand more strenuous conditions than in the first instance.

If Corbyn were to believe he could use Brexiteers as a foil to rally Remainer support, leading to a snap general election, and were then to campaign against no-deal but not frankly for Remain, he would end up at least as far up his own fundament as is May currently.

Put simply, if May's "deal" is out (as it probably will be), then an anti-no-deal platform = Remain. Any notion of "negotiating" anything better is illusory.

 

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 01:08:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So if the referendum choice becomes May's deal or Remain, and Remain wins, after all the shite endured during the past two years, all the time and collective efforts put into fulfilling the Eton-bred wet fantasy of ripping the UK out of the EU, London is going to be: "Hey Europe, let's be palls again. Besties?"

Excuse me while I'll be excessively swearing in a corner.

by Bjinse on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 09:13:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or one could take the alternate Machiavellian view that the Brexit crisis and subsequent climb down has been excellent for EU cohesion and demonstrating the benefits of membership - and conversely in providing a cautionary tale for any euroskeptic parties who might be tempted to pursue a similar course of action.

On the down side it has distracted from urgent reforms  and general business the EU needs to get on with - Climate change, Euro reform, reducing inequality etc. But is there any evidence the EU would have pursued these issues any more urgently in the absence of Brexit? Is it coincidental that there seems to have been a renewed push on signing more trade deals recently?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 07:07:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
believe me, you won't be alone in that corner.

Yes, there will be many sighs of relief, but we will also have to deal with that (possibly ~40%) segment who believe they were cheated of their manifest destiny to make a free (and whiter) britain.

Pandora's box has been torn open. Racism and racist violence is increasing, nazis openly march, a member of Parliament was shot dead on the streets. I honestly thought we'd learned, I honestly thought that unrepentant racists had been reduced to an ineducable rump of malcontents who would die off.

But the rise of ukip, the lionizing of Nigel Farage and his bar stool dog whistling, followed by the media courting of the far more overt Tommy Robinson has shown how complacent I was. Brexit validated these people, people emboldened to wear t-shirts saying "Yes, we won. Now send them home". And the "them" here wasn't about nice white germans or nordic blonds, it was all about coloured people, just like always.

These people feel they are the majority view, released after decades of being held back by an elitist few in the media with their "political correctness". They won't be going back in their box anytime soon and we'll have to live alongside them for many decades to come.

I once said here that the UK had made every mistake it was possible to make about rce relations, but that we had finally learned and come to terms with them. Well, we made a new mistake and now we're gonna have to re-learn every lesson again, from the beginning.

We will not have gotten away with brexit. It has wrecked Britain, economically and socially.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Dec 14th, 2018 at 07:52:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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