Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Yes - I think it comes down to this. The so-called rebels - who always talk a good game, but rarely vote against the whip - are going to have kill this thing, either by voting No Confidence, or by adding a motion for a new referendum if May's deal is voted down.

Some of them have explicitly said they won't vote against their party. So the only possible way ahead is another vote, or the kind of tacit support for No Deal that will hang the resulting crisis around the neck of the Tory party and make it unelectable for at least a generation. [1]

This has the useful side-effect of forcing Corbyn to support another vote too. It's official Labour policy to aim for a GE, with a People's Vote as a fall-back if that isn't possible.

A lot of blood was spilled to get that position accepted at the party conference, but it's there in black and white and fully binding.

So the only question is whether or not this can all be done in time. The smart move for Remainers is to write to the rebels directly to nudge them in this direction.

The downside is - of course - that May's insane lame duck government gets to carry on for a while longer. But if Brexit fails she certainly won't survive another leadership contest, and she could be gone even more quickly - because it's not obvious the DUP would continue to support her if Remain wins the new vote.

[1] Assuming democracy holds. If there's a tanks-on-the-streets coup - sadly not impossible given the Establishment's hatred of Corbyn, all bets are off.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 10:47:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I find it difficult to believe that the Royal Army would stage a coup even if they could stage a successful coup, which is really hard to see.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 11:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember how excited US American innerboob spectators were by 'Arab Spring' in Egypt? Many a petty landlord inexplicably defended the army (for teh peoplw, against Mubarak) and rejoiced when Field Marshall Tantawi condemned Mubarak, then deposed 'democratically-elected' Morsi in order to install Oxford-educated supreme commander-in-chief of the armed forces, el SiSi, who has proved to be a fine successor to Mubarak.

UK, too, could look forward to this power-vacuum kit but for the ceremonial status of its armed forces.

## Democracy is not well understood

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 05:29:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "Arab Spring" had some [or rather many] footnotes ...

"Jesse James" Morsi was freed from jail by a posse of jihadists coming thru the Sinai desert with support of Hamas fighters early in 2011. Indeed Morsi was democratically elected in a power vacuum after deposed dictator Mubarak was thrown in jail. Instead of using his might of being democratically elected by the Egyptian people in the euphoria of Tahrir Square [grab a pussy], Mohamed Morsi became a puppet of the Muslim Brotherhood leadership. This power grab by religious fanatics was unacceptable to the Egyptian military. Their achievements by historical measurements are well rewarded as they profit from a 20% slice of the Egyptian economy. Protecting their assets and possession, el-Sisi took the step to reimpose a military dictatorship with support and funded by the Arab tribal states of KSA, Emirates and Kuwait. Even in record tempo the Suez canal was widened to boost the Egyptian economy - lots of Western nations and corporations earned the profits of this major investment. The roots of setting Qatar aside by the Arab states with support from Israel and the passive policy of the Trump regime. [MB alliance stretches from Egypt's Morsi to Erdogan's Turkey, Qatar and Hamas in the Gaza strip]

Just as in Western nations, the populace is left behind, have no real influence through elections and are put down by increased inequality. Didn't el-Sisi just block the production/sales in Egypt of "gilets jaunes". :)

Egypt jails human rights lawyer for possessing five yellow vests

Censorship in the modern digital age is just not possible, is it? Certainly not by American corporations like Facebook, Twitter and Google - thinking of the First Amendment. Hypocrisy.

Related reading ....

Secr. Clinton's Embrace of Erdogan, Muslim Brothers and Chaos
Classic Agitator: Preacher Safwat Hegazy Inciting Violence In Cairo
MB Axis Egypt - Turkey - Qatar Faces Defeat by Oui @BooMan on July 7th, 2013

by Oui on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 06:21:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I know that.

My remarks are intended to illustrate ignorance and aspirations that surrounded 'revolutionary' people 'power'.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 06:33:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And as it unfolded, petty landlords also praised the 'revolutionary power' of Libyans opposed to Gadaffi. I've saved a bookmark from that period to remind myself of wide-spread 'optimism' or wtf. (Compliments another from defunct PressEurop, fingering Zapatero.)

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 06:46:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the Establishment's hatred of Corbyn

The sheer venom in May's demeanour when facing Corbyn (and threatening the country was doomed to a Labour government if her deal was not approved) was something to behold.
Her mask hasn't slipped like that since the Grenfell fire.
It's physiological.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 12:34:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"She's beginning to sound a lot like Trumpy, everywhere she goes...."
by rifek on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 07:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jeremy Corbyn seems to be real (old) Labour, therefore he should be very successfull in administrating the UK. Should stay for 2 full terms and be allowed to point a successor which would rule in a third Labour term, before being replaced by the Tories at a political landscape redefined by the effectiveness of Corbyn politics. Provided Corbyn did not compromise.

Compromise is however what we in the western world have got used to, and it is much more efficient than tanks. While the age of compriomise (third way) has certainly ended the the US, and in the rest of Europe may only succeed as a (deeply undemocratic) united front against AfD in Germany and FN in France, it may be still be doable in the UK. Combined with financial pressures it would lead to Corbyn having a crippled second term, and - this is would be the real victory - no change in UK's political discussion.

by aDoorIntoSummer on Mon Dec 17th, 2018 at 01:24:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Commentators who lament Corbyn's failure to provide leadership misunderstand the role of the Leader of the Opposition in UK politics. His primary responsibility is to oppose May's policies and her deal, and that he has been doing quite effectively. What he can't do is implement different policies or negotiate a different deal because he doesn't have  Commons majority to do so. So he has to wait for an opportunity to win a confidence vote and fight and win a general election.

The only way he can do that is if Tory Remainers develop a backbone and vote no-confidence in May's government and that they have been unwilling to do until now. So all the outrage that is being hurled at Corbyn really needs to be re-directed at Tory Remainers who talk a good game but who are ultimately not prepared to vote against their party even as it drives the UK over a cliff.

In the meantime the best Corbyn can do is try to keep both Leavers and Remainers in his party united around the common goal of defeating the Tories in a general election. Then he can campaign on the basis of giving the people a vote on whatever deal he can agree with the EU - which will probably end up being very similar to the current deal, but with different priorities for the future relationship.

Then, if the people vote for his deal or remain, he can accept their verdict and govern on the basis of the new dispensation. Whether he is an extreme left winger or not really is beside the point: The point is he is a democrat, and at this point he doesn't have a mandate either to govern or to oppose the referendum result. Without at least a second referendum with a more decisive result, there will never be any change in the dominant anti-EU narrative in UK politics.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 17th, 2018 at 01:42:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"the age of compromise (third way) has certainly ended the the US"

This is incorrect. There is plenty of compromise in the American system, even with our current screwed up administration. An example is the pending government shutdown, which is related to a specific and narrow point of argument, and affects the 25% of government that is related to that point. The other 75% of the government spending bills have already been debated and passed, using the traditional system of compromise and bartering, and will not be affected by a shutdown.

The press focusses on the "man bites dog" stories for obvious reasons, but it is important to look carefully at the overall situation.

by asdf on Mon Dec 17th, 2018 at 03:32:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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