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Yes - I think it comes down to this. The so-called rebels - who always talk a good game, but rarely vote against the whip - are going to have kill this thing, either by voting No Confidence, or by adding a motion for a new referendum if May's deal is voted down.

Some of them have explicitly said they won't vote against their party. So the only possible way ahead is another vote, or the kind of tacit support for No Deal that will hang the resulting crisis around the neck of the Tory party and make it unelectable for at least a generation. [1]

This has the useful side-effect of forcing Corbyn to support another vote too. It's official Labour policy to aim for a GE, with a People's Vote as a fall-back if that isn't possible.

A lot of blood was spilled to get that position accepted at the party conference, but it's there in black and white and fully binding.

So the only question is whether or not this can all be done in time. The smart move for Remainers is to write to the rebels directly to nudge them in this direction.

The downside is - of course - that May's insane lame duck government gets to carry on for a while longer. But if Brexit fails she certainly won't survive another leadership contest, and she could be gone even more quickly - because it's not obvious the DUP would continue to support her if Remain wins the new vote.

[1] Assuming democracy holds. If there's a tanks-on-the-streets coup - sadly not impossible given the Establishment's hatred of Corbyn, all bets are off.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 10:47:47 PM EST
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