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Nothing is going to happen until the vote on the current Deal.  Everybody expects the vote to be a resounding no.  I think you're over-estimating the ability of Parliament to get anything done in the 67 days between Jan 21 and Mar 29 while May is Prime Minister.  In the new UK quasi-Presidential system - as I understand it - May doesn't have to resign simply and only because she has the political power of a dead trout.  And I doubt she has the nous to know exactly how terribly bad she is as Head of Government.

So on March 30th I expect the good people of the United Kingdom to wake up in the morning and start to realize just how totally screwed they are.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 11:11:47 PM EST
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All the House of Commons has to do is pass legislation for a second referendum before the end of March and the EU will agree an A.50 extension to actually hold it. I can't see the EU agreeing an extension merely to facilitate further negotiations. They can then best be held with the UK as a third party.

It become tricky if May refuses to agree to a second referendum and instead plays for time to hold a second vote on her deal in March. At that point Tory Remainers either have to vote no confidence in order to force a second referendum/General election or accept that the most likely outcome is no deal. Corbyn isn't going to bail them out.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 11:43:47 PM EST
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All the House of Commons has to do is pass legislation for a second referendum before the end of March and the EU will agree an A.50 extension to actually hold it.

You make it sound so simple.

Having observed the behaviour of the MPs to some extent over the past months - though not as exhaustively as you probably have - I fail to have confidence at this juncture that the House could realise a majority even for that.

Plus, Blair just spoke in favour of holding a second referendum, to much ire of May - but I'm hardly sure whether his support for the referendum would make it any more attractive for the Tories to support.

by Bjinse on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 09:16:06 PM EST
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Blair is pretty toxic these days - he poisons any well he drinks from. I think it will take quite some time for Parliament to get its act together on any option, and by then it may well be too late.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 09:37:32 PM EST
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Another factor is the timeline and cost required for government and business to get things set up for whatever exit or non-exit arrangement is finally agreed.

If, when the dust settles, there is no Brexit after all, then any money spent now on setting up for an exit will have been wasted. The way for a commercial outfit to minimize their cost and risk is to implement their exit strategy now, and if it turns out that there is an implementation period, that will be good news.

And if there is no Brexit after all, then the cheapest thing to do will be to retain whatever arrangements were made in preparation for Brexit, which means that no-Brexit is not the same as "going back to how things were before this all started," it is more like "you wanted us out of here, so we are out."

A bank that has just moved thousands of workers and IT systems to Frankfurt is not going to be in a rush to move them back to London next April.

by asdf on Mon Dec 17th, 2018 at 03:41:47 PM EST
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It's worse than that: a certain amount of businesses that would never have contemplated moving have now got costed plans (at least) to do so. Some percentage of those will go because it makes business sense anyway, now that they look at it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 17th, 2018 at 05:17:34 PM EST
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 I doubt she has the nous to know exactly how terribly bad she is as Head of Government.

This is where self-referential meets deranged. Very similar to Trump, as you say in your first comment.

Strong dose of Dunning-Krüger (advanced nouslessness) Syndrome too.


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 01:10:57 AM EST
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