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However even I underestimated how spectacularly incompetent the Tory government proved to be.
Consequently it has become obvious to even many low information voters, that a disaster looms, and more and more people are looking for a way out.
At the moment it is still unclear if and how a second vote can come about, but I have recently been raising my mental odds of this happening one way or the other; such is the widespread disillusion.
So whereas before I would have put the odds of a hard Brexit at 80%, it may be down to about 50% now, with 10% for May's deal and 40% for a second referendum followed by no Brexit. Index of Frank's Diaries
No - the Brexit deal only has to be approved by a weighted majority on the Council, so some governments/parliaments can vote against without derailing the deal.
As for timing, I'm not sure. I think they were all waiting for the meaningful vote in the HOC before starting their own debates/votes on the issue. Now that it looks increasingly unlikely the HOC will ever approve, why waste precious parliamentary time on a deal that may never be agreed by the UK in any case? Index of Frank's Diaries
--- * competence or incompetence is a value assignment that recurs in pseudo-intellectual analysis of political activity involving millions of people. It's common usage is misplaced, because (1) value assignment is meaningless when the political project, its criteria, goals, and agents are not defined by 'analysts'; and (2) attribution merely attaches ad hominem, a speaker's high- or low-esteem, to someone associated with a ill-defined political project.
For those supporting UK LEAVE, May's competence is nearly incontrovertible; project success is imminent.
For those supporting UK REMAIN, May's incompetence is nearly incontrovertible; project failure is imminent.
For anyone assigning (in)competence to May alone, May's political status is nearly incontrovertible; project agency is unknown, democracy is understood to represent autocratic prerogatives. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
Get.a.Grip Before any of that occurs, UK parliament must vote to accept the EU Withdrawal Agreement ("May's Deal" to LEAVE 31 Dec 2020). Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
So on March 30th I expect the good people of the United Kingdom to wake up in the morning and start to realize just how totally screwed they are. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
It become tricky if May refuses to agree to a second referendum and instead plays for time to hold a second vote on her deal in March. At that point Tory Remainers either have to vote no confidence in order to force a second referendum/General election or accept that the most likely outcome is no deal. Corbyn isn't going to bail them out. Index of Frank's Diaries
All the House of Commons has to do is pass legislation for a second referendum before the end of March and the EU will agree an A.50 extension to actually hold it.
You make it sound so simple.
Having observed the behaviour of the MPs to some extent over the past months - though not as exhaustively as you probably have - I fail to have confidence at this juncture that the House could realise a majority even for that.
Plus, Blair just spoke in favour of holding a second referendum, to much ire of May - but I'm hardly sure whether his support for the referendum would make it any more attractive for the Tories to support.
If, when the dust settles, there is no Brexit after all, then any money spent now on setting up for an exit will have been wasted. The way for a commercial outfit to minimize their cost and risk is to implement their exit strategy now, and if it turns out that there is an implementation period, that will be good news.
And if there is no Brexit after all, then the cheapest thing to do will be to retain whatever arrangements were made in preparation for Brexit, which means that no-Brexit is not the same as "going back to how things were before this all started," it is more like "you wanted us out of here, so we are out."
A bank that has just moved thousands of workers and IT systems to Frankfurt is not going to be in a rush to move them back to London next April.
This is where self-referential meets deranged. Very similar to Trump, as you say in your first comment.
Strong dose of Dunning-Krüger (advanced nouslessness) Syndrome too. 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
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