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For the past two and a half years I have been predicting a hard "no deal" or "no substantial deal" Brexit basically because the two sides were so far apart and Brexiteer expectations so unrealistic.

However even I underestimated how spectacularly incompetent the Tory government proved to be.

Consequently it has become obvious to even many low information voters, that a disaster looms, and more and more people are looking for a way out.

At the moment it is still unclear if and how a second vote can come about, but I have recently been raising my mental odds of this happening one way or the other; such is the widespread disillusion.

So whereas before I would have put the odds of a hard Brexit at 80%, it may be down to about 50% now, with 10% for May's deal and 40% for a second referendum followed by no Brexit.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 09:47:23 PM EST
One other question: when are the rest of the 27+ parliaments to ratify the WA? It looks like a rush job. After the UK or in parallel? While the chances for ratification are so much higher than in Westminster, one trip-up and the ship goes down.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 10:44:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"one trip-up and the ship goes down"

No - the Brexit deal only has to be approved by a weighted majority on the Council, so some governments/parliaments can vote against without derailing the deal.

As for timing, I'm not sure. I think they were all waiting for the meaningful vote in the HOC before starting their own debates/votes on the issue. Now that it looks increasingly unlikely the HOC will ever approve, why waste precious parliamentary time on a deal that may never be agreed by the UK in any case?


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 11:00:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's reassuring.. as much as it can be in these circumstances. At least, the EU side won't be technically at fault if the no-deal apocalypse comes. As they say "no-deal is now a deliberate choice".

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 11:17:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Neither technique nor 'incompetence'* will have anything to do with blame assignment ( BY WHOM? ), when the UK leaves the EU bloc 29 March 2019.

---
* competence or incompetence is a value assignment that recurs in pseudo-intellectual analysis of political activity involving millions of people. It's common usage is misplaced, because (1) value assignment is meaningless when the political project, its criteria, goals, and agents are not defined by 'analysts'; and (2) attribution merely attaches ad hominem, a speaker's high- or low-esteem, to someone associated with a ill-defined political project.

For those supporting UK LEAVE, May's competence is nearly incontrovertible; project success is imminent.

For those supporting UK REMAIN, May's incompetence is nearly incontrovertible; project failure is imminent.

For anyone assigning (in)competence to May alone, May's political status is nearly incontrovertible; project agency is unknown, democracy is understood to represent autocratic prerogatives.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 06:03:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
per A.50
EP consent to Withdrawal Agreement required
archived: EU Parliament aims to endorse any deal just two weeks before Brexit day, hurdles
before Council "ratification" of Withdrawal Agreement

Get.a.Grip
Before any of that occurs, UK parliament must vote to accept the EU Withdrawal Agreement ("May's Deal" to LEAVE 31 Dec 2020).

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 07:06:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing is going to happen until the vote on the current Deal.  Everybody expects the vote to be a resounding no.  I think you're over-estimating the ability of Parliament to get anything done in the 67 days between Jan 21 and Mar 29 while May is Prime Minister.  In the new UK quasi-Presidential system - as I understand it - May doesn't have to resign simply and only because she has the political power of a dead trout.  And I doubt she has the nous to know exactly how terribly bad she is as Head of Government.

So on March 30th I expect the good people of the United Kingdom to wake up in the morning and start to realize just how totally screwed they are.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 11:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All the House of Commons has to do is pass legislation for a second referendum before the end of March and the EU will agree an A.50 extension to actually hold it. I can't see the EU agreeing an extension merely to facilitate further negotiations. They can then best be held with the UK as a third party.

It become tricky if May refuses to agree to a second referendum and instead plays for time to hold a second vote on her deal in March. At that point Tory Remainers either have to vote no confidence in order to force a second referendum/General election or accept that the most likely outcome is no deal. Corbyn isn't going to bail them out.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 15th, 2018 at 11:43:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

All the House of Commons has to do is pass legislation for a second referendum before the end of March and the EU will agree an A.50 extension to actually hold it.

You make it sound so simple.

Having observed the behaviour of the MPs to some extent over the past months - though not as exhaustively as you probably have - I fail to have confidence at this juncture that the House could realise a majority even for that.

Plus, Blair just spoke in favour of holding a second referendum, to much ire of May - but I'm hardly sure whether his support for the referendum would make it any more attractive for the Tories to support.

by Bjinse on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 09:16:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Blair is pretty toxic these days - he poisons any well he drinks from. I think it will take quite some time for Parliament to get its act together on any option, and by then it may well be too late.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 09:37:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another factor is the timeline and cost required for government and business to get things set up for whatever exit or non-exit arrangement is finally agreed.

If, when the dust settles, there is no Brexit after all, then any money spent now on setting up for an exit will have been wasted. The way for a commercial outfit to minimize their cost and risk is to implement their exit strategy now, and if it turns out that there is an implementation period, that will be good news.

And if there is no Brexit after all, then the cheapest thing to do will be to retain whatever arrangements were made in preparation for Brexit, which means that no-Brexit is not the same as "going back to how things were before this all started," it is more like "you wanted us out of here, so we are out."

A bank that has just moved thousands of workers and IT systems to Frankfurt is not going to be in a rush to move them back to London next April.

by asdf on Mon Dec 17th, 2018 at 03:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's worse than that: a certain amount of businesses that would never have contemplated moving have now got costed plans (at least) to do so. Some percentage of those will go because it makes business sense anyway, now that they look at it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 17th, 2018 at 05:17:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 I doubt she has the nous to know exactly how terribly bad she is as Head of Government.

This is where self-referential meets deranged. Very similar to Trump, as you say in your first comment.

Strong dose of Dunning-Krüger (advanced nouslessness) Syndrome too.


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Dec 16th, 2018 at 01:10:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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