For the past two and a half years I have been predicting a hard "no deal" or "no substantial deal" Brexit basically because the two sides were so far apart and Brexiteer expectations so unrealistic.

However even I underestimated how spectacularly incompetent the Tory government proved to be.

Consequently it has become obvious to even many low information voters, that a disaster looms, and more and more people are looking for a way out.

At the moment it is still unclear if and how a second vote can come about, but I have recently been raising my mental odds of this happening one way or the other; such is the widespread disillusion.

So whereas before I would have put the odds of a hard Brexit at 80%, it may be down to about 50% now, with 10% for May's deal and 40% for a second referendum followed by no Brexit.

Index of Frank's Diaries