The DUP and ERG are quite happy with a no deal Brexit so they won't vote no confidence in May while this is the default outcome.  But they will vote against her deal to ensure No deal is the outcome.

So the only way for May to lose a no confidence vote is for Remainer Tories to grow a spine and vote with the opposition to cause a general election.

If May wants to pre-empt this she can offer the Remainers a second referendum, but even then it is unclear whether Corbyn or sufficient Labour MPs will support it.

If the attempt to legislate for a second referendum fails, the only option for Remainer Tories who wish to prevent a No deal Brexit is to vote no confidence and precipitate a general election.

My lack of confidence in their willingness to do so still leads me to regard a No deal Brexit as being, just, the most likely outcome, despite a majority of Parliament claiming they are against this.

Index of Frank's Diaries