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I hadn't seen that margin of loss projected before. If it's even close to that she should avoid holding a vote at all, because that margin of defeat would be impossible to recover from. It suggests she was delusional even to try. She would have to resign.

Her only option would be to try and delay the vote while she negotiates the sort of deal I suggest in the diary - without losing a vote by such a margin first - which would undermine her credibility and legitimacy.

It also raises the question of what possible alternative to no deal there could be, and who could negotiate it. Even if they decide to hold a second referendum, what options could be on the ballot paper? Hardly an option voted down by a 300-400 majority of the Commons.

This is looking more and more like no deal, even though almost no one wants it. The UK is losing the capacity to act. If there is a leadership challenge and election it could be months before there is a new Prime Minister is elected and a new government is formed.

For the moment the EU can only watch and wonder as there is a collective melt-down in Westminster. No one will be able to do anything and all sorts of wild and wonderful proposals will fill the media and political vacuum.

At the end of it all, the status quo will start to look a lot more attractive to all concerned, but how can a continuance of that even be achieved? We are in for some truly fantastical times, to quote the bold BOJO, the ghost of Churchill in waiting.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 2nd, 2018 at 08:10:16 PM EST
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