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Labour - with cross-party support - have tabled an amendment that makes No Deal impossible.

I'm not expecting 300-400 against. I think most Tories - in the interests of putting party above country, and also because it will dissuade the whips from revealing the dirt they have on them - will vote for the deal, possibly further persuaded by a knighthood or perhaps a peerage, as a reward for outstanding patriotism under pressure.

So the actual majority will be less than 100, and could be at the low end of that.

My guess is the ERG will make its no-confidence move then. It all gets a bit messy at that point, but Labour will be frantically trying to push through a no-confidence and/or a second referendum vote - which may well win, and which the EU are likely to respect.

I don't think the ERG can force No Deal without massive public protests. Things are getting to the point where even the British public may be considering moving beyond mass tutting and satirical Twitter posts.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Dec 3rd, 2018 at 09:31:51 AM EST
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