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The problem with all this speculation, and the reason I'm doing very little of it, is that the situation is so chaotic that predictions are nonsense.

We're down to three outcomes at the end of March 2019: this deal, (with or without changes to the political declaration, which has no legal weight and I doubt the EU would care about changing), no-deal or no Brexit. The EU have no motive to renegotiate the important part of this deal - from their point of view there's four years of negoatiating with a third country before the backstop is even triggered, so what's the big issue?

It seems to me that which of those outcomes falls out of the maelstrom is beyond prediction. Common sense is useless in dealing with desperate, shallow ideologues and narcissists, the UK political system has broken down, the civil service are being ignored, the polity is clueless - it's been suggested that a third of people think "No deal" means "status quo".

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 3rd, 2018 at 10:10:19 AM EST
"Common sense is useless in dealing with desperate, shallow ideologues and narcissists, the UK political system has broken down, the civil service are being ignored, the polity is clueless."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Dec 3rd, 2018 at 12:57:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it's been suggested that a third of people think "No deal" means "status quo".

Which has been my theory all along. It may take a couple of years of near chaos for people generally to realise that the dear old EU they so hated may not have been the cause of all their problems all along.  Trouble is, by that stage A.49 will be their only option, and that may give Macron his opportunity to have his De Gaulle moment...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 3rd, 2018 at 02:11:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
there you go

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Dec 3rd, 2018 at 02:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Your abstinence is noble, your eschewing all predictions, wise. It is difficult to be found wanting or wrong in those circumstances. However, what fun you are missing! Where is your gambling buzz? Where are your predictive instincts?

There is art of finding reason in irrationality, beauty in ugliness, wisdom in the truly stupid. Let us revel in the human condition as found in Westminster, without gloating in misfortune, exulting in schadenfreude, or laughing in the face of disaster.

There but for the grace of the gods go we. Our parents had to deal with worse.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 3rd, 2018 at 03:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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