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The problem with all this speculation, and the reason I'm doing very little of it, is that the situation is so chaotic that predictions are nonsense.

We're down to three outcomes at the end of March 2019: this deal, (with or without changes to the political declaration, which has no legal weight and I doubt the EU would care about changing), no-deal or no Brexit. The EU have no motive to renegotiate the important part of this deal - from their point of view there's four years of negoatiating with a third country before the backstop is even triggered, so what's the big issue?

It seems to me that which of those outcomes falls out of the maelstrom is beyond prediction. Common sense is useless in dealing with desperate, shallow ideologues and narcissists, the UK political system has broken down, the civil service are being ignored, the polity is clueless - it's been suggested that a third of people think "No deal" means "status quo".

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 3rd, 2018 at 10:10:19 AM EST

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