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Support for Brexit is down to less than 40%

For those interested in more detail see Peter Kellner's piece in the Guardian The polls are clear: support for staying in the EU has rocketed

There is a campaign amongst the (predominantly remain supporting) youth to turn out the vote next time. Many who were too young to vote in 2016 are now eligible. By the time of another vote, there will have been about 1.2 million deaths in the UK, mostly older people and I assume biased to 'leave'.

Independent of Kellner's survey, and without anyone changing their mind, there is likely to be a narrow majority for remain next time. That in itself would explain the reluctance to have a vote; a narrow swing to remain could be thought to be more unstabling than the status quo.

by oldremainmer48 on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 10:45:58 AM EST
I'm reading the polls as providing for a a huge swing to remain when the other option is either May's deal or no deal. For the first time the voters will have a concrete choice with known outcomes. I have been meaning to do a diary on it but haven't the time at the moment. Would you fancy giving it a crack?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 11:06:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just don't see a clear majority one way or the other ...

Many forms to ask people's opinion and conclude how a new vote will turn out. Indeed, the turnout can also be worrisome as everyone is clear about one matter: "We're all tired about politics and Brexit. Let's get on with it."

What UK thinks: EU

Do you agree or disagree that 'Anything less than a clean break from the EU will be a betrayal of the Referendum vote'?

Result here.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 01:06:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
YouGov failed spectacularly in June of 2016. If I recall correctly, even their referendum day poll gave a 5% margin win to Remain.

A new referendum is a huge risk. You need a very good plan to placate on the one hand the gratuitous lies from the Leave campaign, but more importantly, Facebook and their acolytes. Even then, there is no guarantee things will turn out your way.

I see it wiser to take down Labour's official path: move on with a light Brexit, remain in the single market and strike a Customs Union agreement with the EU. Years later adhesion can be re-considered.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Wed Dec 26th, 2018 at 11:44:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but also consider that there may be latent Remain support that could come out if an assertive anti-Brexit program were tabled. Bernie Sanders in the US broke all the "centralist moderate" norms and got a lot of support.

If the choice is between Conservative Brexit and Labour Brexit, why even bother to vote?

by asdf on Wed Dec 26th, 2018 at 02:39:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think that Sanders comparisons need to apply. Talking about how awful Brexit is is as "centrist moderate" as can be. The problem Remain faced was that their most visible spokespeople are utter twats and that there was no actual Brexit to oppose. Now with May's document there is at finally something to oppose, but the ghost of Lexit is still haunting the Labour HQ.
by generic on Wed Dec 26th, 2018 at 05:36:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As Ian Dunt has demonstrated there is nothing in the Corbyn election manifesto which falls foul of EU rules. So you can be anything from a Corbynista to a neo-liberal and find little that is objectionable in the Treaties. The problem is that UK governments have been terrible at exploiting the scope those treaties allow, and has tended to use them as an excuse not to do stuff they didn't want to do anyway.

The only people with a real political problem with the EU are the Troskyist/Stalinist leftist fringe and the hard nationalist right. Everyone else who is anti-EU has been duped into believing that the EU is opposed to their brand of politics when in fact the EU has no difficulty in accomodating a very wide range of political policies and traditions indeed.

It is not the EU's fault that national electorates have been drifting ever further right and putting great strain on the social democratic foundations of the EU.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Dec 26th, 2018 at 09:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is not the EU's fault that national electorates have been drifting ever further right

No it's not the EU's fault, it's the ECB's, but people are conflating the two.

Understandably... There's some guilt-by-association.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Dec 27th, 2018 at 05:40:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The ECB is constituted as it is because Europeans elect right wingers.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Dec 27th, 2018 at 08:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that even when Europeans think they have elected left wingers they turn out to be functionally right wingers (with the honorable exception of Greece, which is why it was necessary to punish them so severely)

It used to be only central Europeans who saw no distinction between left and right. Now it's the whole bloody continent.

(Probably overstating the case, but Italy and France are the latest victims)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Dec 28th, 2018 at 11:20:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't Le Pen against the big banks as well as immigrants?
The old L-R polarity just doesn't stand the test any more.
Even more so the concept of what centre-anything means!
The Overton window has slid right out of the wall.
Get 'em by the semantics and the rest will follow'.
I am far from happy about the power Salvini has garnered piggybacking on the MV5*'s electoral victory, but this budget, though far from perfect, does more to make the very poor slightly better off than any has in decades.
It is distributive, which is why Brussels bashed it so.
The chances it will bring economic growth are still slim to none, but neither did austerity so something new deserves to be tried.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Dec 29th, 2018 at 02:13:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... there is nothing in the Corbyn election manifesto which falls foul of EU rules. So you can be anything from a Corbynista to a neo-liberal and find little that is objectionable in the Treaties.

George Peretz QC has a related analysis in the Guardian today.

Four reasons Jeremy Corbyn is dead wrong about EU state aid

I was struck by his comment

The real problem is not the state aid rules but the UK's own policy. The UK gives much less state aid per head than most EU countries, under-using the scope that it has within the state aid rules to support (for example) industrial training and regional development. And though Lexiters complain that the state aid rules could be an obstacle to a Labour government, in my experience they never get beyond abstractions about the "neoliberal" nature of those rules to actually set out the policies that a Labour government may want to implement that would not be permitted.
by oldremainmer48 on Thu Dec 27th, 2018 at 06:18:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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