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Opinion polling has gotten a bad rap in recent years which has led many to question their accuracy and significance. But if you take them at face value there has been a huge swing to Remain with both May's deal and no deal polling very badly. The problem is ther is almost no way for this changed reality to articulate its way into the Westminster bubble where politicians are locked into very entrenched positions.

Thus even if there were to be a 2:1 majority for Remain against any other option - which I think is quite possible - this will not necessarily be believed or translated into action in government. The establishment has a very effective dam against popular sentiment between elections and unless this dam bursts nothing will happen. If it does burst the effect could be quite spectacular.

Dam burst of dreams

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 24th, 2018 at 11:00:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Remainer Gilets jaunes, where are you?

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Dec 25th, 2018 at 10:25:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On the question of what goes on in the Westminster bubble, we discussed in another thread the illusory notion that Corbyn as PM could beat the oily foreigners into submission, sorry, negotiate a better deal.

Here's some interesting poll data:

A further challenge for Jeremy Corbyn is to persuade voters that he could get a better Brexit deal if he were prime minister. This claim is rejected by 68%-11% of voters generally, by 47%-30% of Labour voters, and - perhaps most ominously - by 52-23% of Labour leave voters.

Admittedly, it's extra-Parliamentary. But when it becomes apparent, even to those deep in the brown stuff within the HP Sauce bottle, that Parliament is incapable of settling this issue and a slide over the cliff-edge approaches, what will happen?

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Dec 25th, 2018 at 10:56:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that is precisely what gives the whole Brexit saga its dramatic appeal - the fact that no one really knows what happens when no deal approaches despite the fact that a large majority are opposed and also know their electorate won't thank them for a bad outcome.

The script is tailor made for a "knight in shining armour" moment but the casting Director has blanched at the prospect of casting either Corbyn or BoJo in the role and no one has written the script yet anyway.

But it's amazing how the threat of onrushing reality can focus minds and persuade waverers - and May is still the one in possession of the initiative. If she can't get a majority for her deal, what is her plan B?

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Dec 25th, 2018 at 07:52:42 PM EST
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