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The current DUP dependent government is incapable of achieving any Brexit deal acceptable to the EU, and even if it could, it is doubtful whether there is a majority in the present Parliament to ratify it. Thus another general election is required IF there is to be a Brexit deal and I am not convinced Corbyn would necessarily win it.

It is also doubtful whether the Theresa May would call another general election under any circumstances prior to Brexit day (bar losing a vote of confidence) even if this means a no-deal Brexit. My default assumption is still therefore a hard Brexit with no substantial deal.

And if there is a no-deal Brexit I would expect the EU to raise tariffs on UK exports to recover monies due to EU Budget. If the UK retaliates a trade war may result.

Either way, it could be decades before a FTA is negotiated given that, after Brexit, any FTA requires unanimous approval of all 27 EU members plus some regional parliaments... a fitting legacy of the UK push to expand the Union rapidly without governance reform in order to dilute its decision making capability.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Feb 28th, 2018 at 07:43:40 PM EST
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