The Spaniards I spoke to (not from Catalonia) were convinced the separatists were a minority and would lose the elections called by Rajoy. The separatists won again - hardly a ringing endorsement for Rajoy.  The people I spoke to were, however, very upset that anyone would try to break up Spain, and thus very supportive of Rajoy's attempts to preserve unity - even if not necessarily PP supporters. They found it very difficult to understand my point that much of what he has done has been counter-productive, if Spanish unity is the objective.

I'm not sure how your analogy with N. Ireland works. The DUP trying to impose Brexit against the wishes of the majority there is already an outrage. It has been partly responsible for the breakdown in relationships with Sinn Fein which has prevented a re-establishment of devolved institutions there. Sinn Fein came with 1,000 votes of becoming the largest party at the last Assembly elections. There is a large majority against the DUP now on the Brexit issue, and if they aren't careful that political consensus against them will broaden to all other issues.

If I were a DUP member now, I would be very nervous that I have put "the Union" back in play. Their fate depends on the survival of the May government, but for how long? The fact that the Varadker government hasn't been amenable to their idea of "compromise" on the border may encourage some to try some dirty tricks against Varadker. It would want to be very smartly done to succeed. Irish nationalism is not short on conspiracy theories about what Mi5 and some loyalist groups might get up to. It is very likely any obvious atrocity would backfire spectacularly.

Index of Frank's Diaries