I had a half written comment in a forgotten tab that no one buys this and whom is it even supposed to convince?
Turns out the European Council and half the EU is dispelling diplomats.
So obviously the Tories judged the mood in European Capitals more accurately than me. And frankly this sort of looks like a smart play. One of the few points of leaverage the UK has is that they have an actually functional military with a further role in Europe that is up for grabs. Heating up the Cold War with Russia gives more weight to this. The military industrial establishment is also one of the few power centres that could trump the EU's institutional juggernaut.
On the other hand my distraction theory falls flat. If you want a flashy distraction than you pick on a country you can actually do something about. Blame it on Assad or the Houthis.