It seems to me that expelling a couple of diplomats - who are probably known spies in any case - is nothing more than a token gesture to demonstrate some solidarity with the UK in the context of a heinous act. Perhaps with some generalised disapproval of Russian involvement in cyber-security scandals thrown in. It doesn't mean very much in the real world of EU/Russian realpolitik and will soon be forgotten. It certainly doesn't imply that everyone is convinced by the "evidence" of Russian involvement. I also don't think it will have much impact on the Brexit negotiations which aren't really about military cooperation, although some sub-strands may touch on it.

What it does mean that May has had a useful distraction for a few weeks which has taken the heat off her failure to make any impact on the EU negotiation position on Brexit. It will help make hard-core Brexiteers (and far right military hawks) feel comfortable that Britain still has an important place in the world. Why else would Russia attack it? And doesn't it show that British Diplomacy can still call the shots for the rest of the EU?

The EU still prefers to deal with the Devil they Know (May) rather than a possible alternate Tory (or Labour) government leader. May is still seen as the best prospect of delivering a deal to the EU's liking. So anything the EU can do to help prop up May will be done - provided it doesn't cost too much in terms of concessions across the negotiating table. Of course May will be dispensable once Brexit actually happens, and that game is over. And if the UK still wants to play "me too" whenever a military crisis beckons, that will be indulged too.

But at the end of the day, the UK simply doesn't matter all that much to most of the rest of the EU any more. It's day is done. Perhaps some deck chairs on the Titanic can be rearranged, but that ship has sailed.

Index of Frank's Diaries