A Perfect Storm | 157 comments (157 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: A Perfect Storm (none / 1)

I worry sometimes that I have been a bit arrogant and presumptuous in taking a very strong "Brexit is going to be a slow motion train-crash" approach from day one. One's opposition to the Brexiteer's politics can sometimes lead to wishful thinking that everything will go belly up for them. But everything that has happened since the referendum has been absolutely in line with my median expectations.

If I have been mildly surprised by developments since, it has been by the absolute calm, competence, and unanimity on the EU side. There should have been loads of potential differences for the UK to exploit. I am not an admirer of Fine Gael, and believe that if they could find a way to sell out, they would. But so far even Varadker and Coveney have been models of a calm determination not to allow the Brexiteers drive a coach-and-four through the uneasy settlement in the North. The EU's unanimous and strong-minded support for us in that is admirable.

Of course it is still quite likely for the whole thing thing to seriously off the rails from everyone's point of view, and that is most likely the outcome if the Brexiteers take over. Varadker and co. will take a lot of domestic heat if that happens because the damage to our economy will be considerable. But so far they have held their nerve.

Either May calls the DUP's bluff and risks a general election, or we are heading for a no substantial deal scenario. We will see how strong the Conservatives affections are for the DUP in due course.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 9th, 2018 at 09:46:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (4.00 / 2)

oe of the reasons that I don't believe in the "no deal2 scenario is that there is no majority for such suicidal tendencies in either the Commons or the Lords.

Rather, as things approach the wire and we begin the final winding down, rather than allowing a "no deal" to be the only hand on deck, it is far more likely that remainers in all parties, who form a handy majority in both houses, will come together to agree a "leave-lite" agenda that both acknowledges the referendum vote but which also answers all the red lines of the EU.

Yes, this may trigger a Constitutional crisis and would certainly trigger a General Election, but I think, at that point, even conservative leavers will have decided that national interest trumps Party. A calculation that would baffle members of the ERG who seem to venerate self-interest above all else.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jun 9th, 2018 at 11:27:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (none / 0)

My suspicion is that May is only trying to hang in their until the Commons goes into the summer recess. Then she will negotiate whatever deal she can and the DUP and Brexiteers won't be able to stop her. If Minsters resign she will replace them with her own people. I doubt a heave against her would succeed if she is prepared to hang on with a bare majority of Tory support.

If she loses a confidence vote when the Commons comes back she will call a general election in the Autumn on the terms of whatever deal she has negotiated. You could then have the weird situation where half the Tories campaign against her and most of Labour and the Lib Dems campaign for her deal.

The thing I don't get is why everyone in the UK seems to accept that a trade deal won't be negotiated until after Brexit. A Brexit deal requires a qualified majority in the Council. A Trade deal afterwards requires unanimity and may never be agreed if there is bad blood when the UK leaves.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 9th, 2018 at 07:13:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"the UK seems to accept" (4.00 / 2)

wut? The Tories have not accepted "hat a trade deal won't be negotiated until after Brexit." Every "position paper" published, the volumes of "Future Partnership Papers" -- flogging UK trade demands, transition/implementation period configurations, and deadline extensions--has expressed their contempt for procedural order to withdrawal settlement given by the EU.

Barnier has been adamant about keeping Tories on schedule. Tusk on behalf of the Council has been adamant on the point since May mailed the A50. The EP has been adamant on the point since May mailed the A50. The "sufficient progress" reports made clear, right up to 19 March [!] and 6 June 2018: The Tories' cannot follow the simplest instructions.

With them, it's always exception to the rule, cart before the horse, pride before the fall.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 9th, 2018 at 08:27:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (4.00 / 2)

The reason that a trade deal won't be negotiated is that there is neither will nor competence within the Tory party to do so.

After all, if you can't even get agreement on the most nebulous of details without risking a vote of no confidence, then the tedious but complicated detail of a trade deal exists in a galaxy far beyond the compehension of the Tory "mind".

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jun 9th, 2018 at 08:28:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (none / 1)

But they have successfully demonstrated that they have no credibility. I say again: Who in hell would want to do business with that lot?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 9th, 2018 at 08:39:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (4.00 / 3)

I'm sure Trump would like to organise a deal that would gouge a significant slice of UK GDP for years to come, especially if it involved significant kickbacks for him and his family.

Also, ME potentates would love to buy weapons from us at even more advantageious prices than currently.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 10th, 2018 at 07:55:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (none / 0)

I say again.
"Any tariff greater than 0 is the number driving prospects of 'permanent insanity or piracy' through the UK."

The apple does not fall far from the tree.
"the Articles primarily addresses adjudication and severability of commerce and piracy sanctioned by any one state rather than 'the united States in congress assembled'."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Jun 10th, 2018 at 06:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (none / 0)

FTA's are normally negotiated by technical specialists and professional negotiators "far from the maddening crowd". They normally only become "political" when controversial proposals like independent courts to arbitrate disputes are included or when they are too overtly "neo-liberal" in the sense that they contain proposals that will that will damage key sectoral interests in a particular economy - e.g. farmers.

Trump is actually unusual in that he actually takes an interest, although he usually gets his facts wrong. As US firms are the biggest beneficiaries from trade liberalisation, he should be careful which can of worms he opens. The EU response has, to date, been muted, but there are an awful lot of large US multinationals operating in Europe who could be badly hit by an on-line sales tax, a Tobin tax, and various import duties.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 9th, 2018 at 09:58:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (4.00 / 2)

that's all true, but the begotiators can only work within guidelines of what is acceptable determined by political leaders, who are the ones ultimately responsible for what is decided.

Right now, the politicians are incapable of giving even the most vague of outlines, so no negotiation is possible.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 10th, 2018 at 07:58:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (4.00 / 2)

Which is why the EU negotiators, instead of twiddling their thumbs, are effectively in the process of producing a "default" Brexit agreement covering all the bases that need to be covered - from their perspective. The longer the UK negotiators cannot really engage with them, for want of relevant and consistent political guidance, the longer the EU drafts become "facts on the ground" which cannot be changed later for want of sufficient time to renegotiate and ratify.

Sooner or later the UK will then be presented with a "take it or leave it" draft of over 1,000 pages of such complexity poor Boris and David won't even be able to read it. They will be relying to the tabloids to explain it to them in words of one syllable, and then reject it all in a huff because because without having any alternative.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 10th, 2018 at 09:24:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Perfect Storm (none / 1)

they can reject it personally, but, after the judgement forced in the courts by Gina Miller, they won't be able to push it through the Commons. Which gives space for the Remain majority of MPs to accept it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 10th, 2018 at 10:42:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A Perfect Storm | 157 comments (157 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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