Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I worry sometimes that I have been a bit arrogant and presumptuous in taking a very strong "Brexit is going to be a slow motion train-crash" approach from day one. One's opposition to the Brexiteer's politics can sometimes lead to wishful thinking that everything will go belly up for them. But everything that has happened since the referendum has been absolutely in line with my median expectations.

If I have been mildly surprised by developments since, it has been by the absolute calm, competence, and unanimity on the EU side. There should have been loads of potential differences for the UK to exploit. I am not an admirer of Fine Gael, and believe that if they could find a way to sell out, they would. But so far even Varadker and Coveney have been models of a calm determination not to allow the Brexiteers drive a coach-and-four through the uneasy settlement in the North. The EU's unanimous and strong-minded support for us in that is admirable.

Of course it is still quite likely for the whole thing thing to seriously off the rails from everyone's point of view, and that is most likely the outcome if the Brexiteers take over. Varadker and co. will take a lot of domestic heat if that happens because the damage to our economy will be considerable. But so far they have held their nerve.

Either May calls the DUP's bluff and risks a general election, or we are heading for a no substantial deal scenario. We will see how strong the Conservatives affections are for the DUP in due course.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 9th, 2018 at 09:46:26 AM EST
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