The UK strategy seems to be to keep the posts customs controls/tariff free in the hope that the EU would reciprocate. However this is because they simply don't have the infrastructure in place to impose those controls in the first place, and hope that that way they will have access to the Single market by default as if they were still a member.

However those nasty French will probably not reciprocate, partly because they may have more of the required infrastructure in place, the tariffs will come in handy to replace the lost UK contribution to the EU budget, and mainly because there are few UK exports that are absolutely critical to French/EU food/production supply chains.

The Brits will scream blue murder and that the actions of the French amount to a declaration of war. The EU will reply that they are simply treating UK goods and passengers in the same way as any other non-member state goods/citizens.

Unlike the UK where everything seems chaotic, I would be surprised if EU plans for a no-deal Brexit are not well advanced.  And it is much easier for the EU to be prepared: UK exports make up only 4% of EU imports whereas EU sourced goods make up 40% of UK imports. So the impact on EU customs infrastructure is relatively marginal - an order of magnitude less than the impact on UK infrastructure - although highly concentrated in the channel ports area.

In the meantime, a new Cork to Santander ferry route has just been opened and Irish shipping firms plan to bypass British ports with direct routes to Europe.

CLdN, a shipping company in Luxembourg, has introduced two "mega vessels" on new direct freight routes between Dublin and the ports of Zeebrugge, Belgium, and Rotterdam, in the Netherlands.

Irish Continental Group will boost weekly freight capacity from 120 to 1,155 lorries between Dublin and the French port of Cherbourg this summer.

Brittany ferries will this month start a service between Cork and Santander in Spain

At the moment the June EU summit seems doomed to failure, and with it May's reputation for keeping the process going. It seems likely that she will lose a critical Commons vote sometime soon, but that may only usher in another Tory leader, not a general election.

Whatever chance May has of evoking a sympathetic response from EU leaders, Johnson, Gove, or Rees-Mogg have none. The will have no choice but to go for a no-deal "clean" break from the EU, with all the consequences described in the Times article.

Then after about two years of absolute mayhem I would expect a general election and a new government led by Corbyn. But he will receive no better welcome from the EU, particularly it's far right eastern leaders.

This has the potential of going complete out of control and downhill all the way, with the additional complications of the Italian crisis and the Trump Trade War thrown in for good measure.

How to destroy a relatively benign global economic outlook in three easy lessons. I still can't see a bottom to all of this...

Index of Frank's Diaries