Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
But what is the "worse" scenario?

The Guardian adds:

The government has suggested it would temporarily waive tariffs and border checks on goods entering Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario, in an effort to minimise disruption at borders. But the EU could still halt the flow of goods in the opposite direction.
So France may end up without food?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Jun 3rd, 2018 at 02:12:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, no English Cheddar, Wensleydale, Marmite or Branston pickle. Most of the English imports you could source from Ireland or other EU states instead however.

The UK strategy seems to be to keep the posts customs controls/tariff free in the hope that the EU would reciprocate. However this is because they simply don't have the infrastructure in place to impose those controls in the first place, and hope that that way they will have access to the Single market by default as if they were still a member.

However those nasty French will probably not reciprocate, partly because they may have more of the required infrastructure in place, the tariffs will come in handy to replace the lost UK contribution to the EU budget, and mainly because there are few UK exports that are absolutely critical to French/EU food/production supply chains.

The Brits will scream blue murder and that the actions of the French amount to a declaration of war. The EU will reply that they are simply treating UK goods and passengers in the same way as any other non-member state goods/citizens.

Unlike the UK where everything seems chaotic, I would be surprised if EU plans for a no-deal Brexit are not well advanced.  And it is much easier for the EU to be prepared: UK exports make up only 4% of EU imports whereas EU sourced goods make up 40% of UK imports. So the impact on EU customs infrastructure is relatively marginal - an order of magnitude less than the impact on UK infrastructure - although highly concentrated in the channel ports area.

In the meantime, a new Cork to Santander ferry route has just been opened and Irish shipping firms plan to bypass British ports with direct routes to Europe.

CLdN, a shipping company in Luxembourg, has introduced two "mega vessels" on new direct freight routes between Dublin and the ports of Zeebrugge, Belgium, and Rotterdam, in the Netherlands.

Irish Continental Group will boost weekly freight capacity from 120 to 1,155 lorries between Dublin and the French port of Cherbourg this summer.

Brittany ferries will this month start a service between Cork and Santander in Spain

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 3rd, 2018 at 03:25:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In addition, Air France started a daily non-stop service between Paris and Cork a week ago, in addition to the 4 daily non-stop flights between Paris and Dublin.
by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Jun 3rd, 2018 at 05:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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