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Apparently, Downing Street is confident that Davis - with his legendary attention to detail - has all eventualities covered...
Britain will be `fully prepared' for no deal exit from EU
The Sunday Times reported that models for mild, severe and "armageddon" reactions to no-deal exits were created by officials, with a source saying that even the severe scenario saw the Port of Dover "collapse on day one".

But the prime minister's official spokesman said: "The Department for Exiting the European Union has said that these claims are completely false.

"A significant amount of work and decision-making has gone into our no deal plans, especially as it relates to ports, and we know that none of this would happen."

Asked if that was a "cast iron guarantee", the spokesman said: "We are planning for all scenarios and we will make sure that we are fully prepared in the event of any eventuality."

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 03:49:23 PM EST
yea, right.

Every reaction they had to that initial story over the weekend only served to confirm that the report existed and had been reported faithfully.

The thing is that people's willingness to believe the promises of the brexiteers has been eroded. I admit I had no faith to start with, but I'm talking about the faithful now. If you start losing the Times, which has been quite evident judging by the fact that they even published it, then you're already eating into the brexit voting classes.

They may not be the right wing ultras at the Mail or the ERG fanatics at the Telegraph, but the Timess probably represents the majority sentiment of those who voted Leave. They were willing to go along with almost all of it, even anticipating a slight dip in fortunes in the expectation of long term improvement, as long as it wasn't going to be catastrophic. But now the evidence is rolling in that the brexiteers are in over their heads, constantly being sideswiped by issues such as Ulster that are both as unexpected as they are intractable.

It. Is. Going. To. Be. A . Disaster. And if the Times starts saying it with any conviction, then that pro-brexit polling is gonna melt away in the summer heat with a very cold winter coming.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 06:18:05 PM EST
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When asked whether the decision to leave the EU was "right" or "wrong", polls generally showed a 0-5% majority of voters approving of the decision right up to the General election in June 2017. However since then an increasing majority (0->5%) have said the decision was "wrong".  

It is quite something to get voters to agree that a decision taken by the nation is wrong. If the question is worded differently, e.g. if voters are asked to vote on the agreed terms of leaving many more might vote to stay, as doing so doesn't involve admitting the original decision was wrong. It might just require an acceptance that the Tories haven't done a very good job of negotiating advantageous terms for leaving.

If you wanted to be really Machiavellian, you could argue the British Establishment has done an absolutely awful job of negotiating advantageous terms of leaving in order to facilitate such an outcome. However the national humiliation involved in staying now would probably be enough to kick the Tories out of the two party governmental system in the UK, with the Lib Dems taking their place.

So it is absolutely required of the Tory leader to prevent such an outcome, whatever the damage to the UK as a whole. However I doubt Theresa May could survive a failure to negotiate and agree any kind of deal, so she personally doesn't have an awful lot to lose any more.

If she loses a Commons vote on the outcome of the negotiations she has four options:

  1. Attempt to negotiate a better deal. Time is running out, and she risks March 31st. approaching without any deal.

  2. May steps down or is forced to resign and is replaced by a Brexiteer who may attempt a renegotiation but probably ultimately proceeds with a no-deal Brexit if the EU doesn't bow to their demands.

  3. May announces a second referendum to vote on the terms of exit, with rejection resulting in an attempt to withdraw the A50 notification.

  4. May calls a general election on the terms of the deal campaigning on the basis that they be accepted. If she loses the general election it will be up to whoever wins to negotiate better terms or abandon the whole exercise and attempt to withdraw the A50 notification.


Please note my view (not really officially confirmed, to my knowledge) that accepting an A50 withdrawal requires unanimity on the Council, which is not a given. The UK might have to give humiliating undertakings  not to invoke A50 again for many years. Although a British government cannot bind a future one, an international Treaty can.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 11:02:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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