A Perfect Storm | 157 comments (157 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Frank. Step away from the pollsters' "polls of polls", n=400, N=168M.

Many are venal and stupid, but they are not that venal and stupid.

The final 18 months of "Trump" trade will concentrate the two brain cells between them to vote up --by ballot or bullet-- anyone but.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 04:07:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "a bottom" (none / 1)

Has anyone ever lost money betting on the venality and stupidity of the American people? Your faith is touching...but Ihaven't seen much evidence to support it.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 04:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "evidence" ? (none / 0)

in the Irish Times or the Irish Times?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 04:29:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "evidence" ? (none / 0)

You have the advantage on me in being an actual American living in America with lots of American sources and contacts. I ended up relying on stuff like Pollster's poll of polls which didn't do me any favours in Trump vs. Hillary, although she did win the popular votes by 3 points. It takes spectacular incompetence to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania with numbers like that. But then who ARE the republicans and Democrats (or Independents) going to put up against Trump? I'm not seeing either a rising star or a winning hand.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 04:54:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "evidence" ? (none / 0)

>It takes spectacular incompetence to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania with numbers like that
One of us is a little fuzzy on the difference between state delegates to the DNC and state electors in a presidential election. Your boy Obama and Who? connived to disqualify MI and FL primary results in '08. Wouldn't it be comical if that episode informed --without aid of foreign agents-- Michiganders' preference for "spectacular incompetence". So it is. Trump won the MI popular vote by 10,704 and 16 electors in 2016, as is the custom.

>who ARE the republicans and Democrats (or Independents)...
The uniparty is already floating favored POTUS candidates. Why don't you know them? For example, Sen. Flake, one of the least distinguished in the wave of incumbents retreating from RNC #NeverTrump'16 to temporary obscurity, while Democrats besmirch the mid-term congressional recycle derby. What is Mr Flake's hook in I, D, R voters, Frank?

Independent a/k/a unaffiliated registered voters is NOT a partisan organization or incorporated enterprise. As such independent voters as a group do not raise capital or nominate candidates and are not regulated as such by the FEC and states' election boards. But individual independent voters are subject to FEC regulation limiting "donor" gifts to any party campaign. Further, independent voters are permitted only to vote for partisan candidates in open primary and general elections. Independent voters don't "put up" candidates. They make or break them.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 08:24:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "evidence" ? (none / 0)

I doubt that Flake or any other Republican can deny Trump the republican nomination in 2020 unless Trump starts and loses a major war. I am aware than Independents aren't an organisation as such (by definition!). However voters voting for an independent candidate can influence the outcome. For example Ross Perot made it possible for Bill Clinton to win with 43% of the vote by taking 19% of the vote many of which might otherwise have gone to Bush snr. So if Flake (or someone similar) ran as an Independent and attracted a significant number of otherwise Republican leaning votes, it would be easier for the democratic nominee to win.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 10:21:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "evidence" ? (none / 1)

Did I predict Trump would not be nominated? No.

Let's recap.
I said he would not be elected again. Any one but:

I suggested that regardless of binary statistical descriptions of voter preferences, the true "margin of error" --independent voters-- will be the instrument of Trump's defeat. They will join with Trump opposition constituents in both parties to form a majority "for love of money."

Independent is a party of one. Squabbling over profits lost, jobs saved or created.

Now, you've pointed out --to the size of the minority faction with no indication of irony-- that splitting 56% of the remaining electorate (hidebound, middle-class, "Reagan" republican voters) lost the incumbent (G.H.W. Bush) the seat.

Case closed.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Jun 4th, 2018 at 11:55:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "evidence" ? (none / 1)

There aren't any independents positioning themselves to run (Howard Schultz rumors to the contrary, and besides, how likely is it that Starbucks is going to mobilize the masses?), so it will be D vs. R in 2020, and the DNC will make sure R will win. In a sane system, the DNC would be foaming at the mouth over all the disenfranchisement plots, such as the one our glorious SCOTUS just upheld in Ohio, except for one, small thing: Those plots help the DNC. The folks losing their voting privileges would be voting for progressives, not the neoliberal stooges the DNC keeps foisting on us, so the Rethuglican vote suppressors are actually helping the DNC tools maintain control over the Democratic Party.

by rifek on Fri Jun 15th, 2018 at 01:39:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "evidence" ? (none / 1)

No one has declared for POTUS 2020. No sane or sincere candidate would want to position him or herself now for two more years of Trump "troll" tweets with schmears and streaks of MSNBC and FOX.

Look what happened to Flake.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Jun 15th, 2018 at 01:41:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A Perfect Storm | 157 comments (157 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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