Let's recap.
I said he would not be elected again. Any one but:

I suggested that regardless of binary statistical descriptions of voter preferences, the true "margin of error" --independent voters-- will be the instrument of Trump's defeat. They will join with Trump opposition constituents in both parties to form a majority "for love of money."

Independent is a party of one. Squabbling over profits lost, jobs saved or created.

Now, you've pointed out --to the size of the minority faction with no indication of irony-- that splitting 56% of the remaining electorate (hidebound, middle-class, "Reagan" republican voters) lost the incumbent (G.H.W. Bush) the seat.

Case closed.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.