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Rupture or Deliverance - Three Scenarios - Spiegel Online

Separate meetings of CDU and CSU MPs, verbal attacks on Merkel... CDU MPs gave Merkel a 14 day deadline to find a solution until the EU council meeting.

Everything that had been boiling since the refugee crisis in 2015 is breaking out four months ahead of the elections in Bavaria.

Scenario 1: Rupture

If there is no agreement between Merkel and Seehofer then there could be a showdown next week. Seehofer could give order to reject refugees at the border... [Merkel] would fire her minister, the CSU ministers would leave the cabinet. The coalition would no longer have a majority. ... Or maybe the Greens replace the CSU? ... the most unlikely scenario. Seehofer and Merkel will do everything to avoid it.

Scenario 2: Compromise buys Time

Seehofer will order to start preparing for rejections. Preparations would not be completed until the 28th when the EU summit will start. That's just the two week deadline... A compromise would only stabilize the coalition for the short term. ... hardly last until 2021.

Scenario 3: Deliverance

unrealistic... Merkel and Seehofer find a way to compromise and deescalate.

This has been brewing for a long time. I don't see how Merkel will last the whole term. CDU chancellors have always been deposed or overstayed their welcome.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sat Jun 16th, 2018 at 12:55:47 AM EST
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