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I've been stressing this point to pro-Brexit people in various forums and yet they seem utterly oblivious to the implications. They blithely assume they can always fall back on "WTO" rules as  sort of default lowest common denominator setting and forget they will have no established trading relationship - either FTA or otherwise with the rest of the world. The WTO operates by consensus and is extremely slow moving, and it only tales one nation to object, so it could take years for even pre-existing trading relationships to be formalised.

No one on the EU side is talking about this, so I wonder what they are up to. If Sterling devalues by another 20% many EU industries will struggle to compete in the UK market. Could the EU be considering putting blanket tariffs on UK goods to level the playing pitch and retaliate for the UK defaulting on their exit payment? The EU is concluding more and more FTAs with all its major trading partners and relying less and less on WTO rules. Could it even be considering leaving the WTO?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 3rd, 2018 at 10:37:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Incorrect.

European Council | Council authorises opening of negotiations with WTO members on Brexit-related adjustments, 26 June, including legislative TRQ proposal for ratification

Third-countries comment and analysis of EU "adjustments"
EPA Monitoring | EU Council authorises launch of Negotiations on apportionment of WTO TRQs, 2 July

UK - WTO notification
WTO | United Kingdom submits draft schedule to the WTO outlining post-Brexit goods commitments, 24 July

The United Kingdom considers this notification to constitute a rectification of its concessions under the WTO, on the grounds that the schedule replicates the concessions and commitments currently applicable to the UK as an EU member. Under this process, known as the "1980 Procedures for modification and rectification of Schedules", WTO members will have three months to review the schedule, which will be considered to be approved if there are no objections from other members.

October 2018 "conclusion" to UK negotiation
A question one might ask, but will not evidently find in the Irish Times is, Has any WTO member submitted objections to either TRQ yet?

And therefore, What are EU delegation purposes in "side-line" meetings on "WTO reform" with third-countries?

One will not likely find the correct answers in Tory gov presses. The consequences of its acts are bigger than itself, and that is not flattering and ideas of "brinksmanship" in a game of more than two players. One of which the odious Team Trump, bandying about autos and soybeans.

archived
Seven agricultural...already said they disapprove of the terms of the divorce, 25 July
That action cannot be walked back, 26 July

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Aug 3rd, 2018 at 01:23:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the EU has kicked started the WTO schedule splitting process as part of the Brexit negotiations, but what I was talking about is the "No deal" scenario and the Brexiteers beloved assumption that they can carry on trading as before under WTO rules even without any deal. No deal means halting the WTO process as well, if it has not already been stymied by the 7 countries which have already lodged their concerns.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 3rd, 2018 at 01:58:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I disagree. The EU and Tory gov are not even playing the same game. This is your blind spot.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Aug 3rd, 2018 at 03:03:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regardless what games people play, the result will be either a deal or no deal. I have begun exploring the consequences of no deal here

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 3rd, 2018 at 04:59:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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