The UK to remain within a reformed EU? | 43 comments (43 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (none / 0)

I think you misread my scenario where the Brexit deal is rejected by the House of Commons, not just Labour. Corbyn's attempts to negotiate "a better deal for Britain" are met with disinterest in the Commission and hostility from centre right and far right EU Governments.

As an alternative the Commission offers to consider any ideas Labour might have "to reform the EU" which might persuade it to support a remain vote in a second referendum in opposition to a no deal Brexit which no one wants.

In practice those discussions would be mostly a face saving device to give Labour to an opportunity to claim to have negotiated "a better deal for Britain" and allow voters to feel they are not being humiliated by having to reverse their prior decision.

However the Commission would be severely constrained in what it could offer by what far right governments in the EU would be prepared to accept. I suspect Macron/Merkel would re-package reforms they have been considering in any case to make them seem substantial concessions to the UK.

Sadly those concessions might also include some constraints on migration - particularly external (refugee) migration - but also internal migration. That would make for an interesting confrontation between (say) Hungary and the UK, with the UK wanting to cherry pick and restrict Hungarian nationals moving to the UK.

But here the emergence of a Labour government might actually be helpful as Corbyn is unlikely to be as obsessed with welfare spongers and more inclined to spend money on the NHS to limit the impact immigrants might be perceived to have on waiting lists etc.

Let us not forget that prior attempts to re-negotiate the UK's role in the EU and how the EU operates have been Tory led. The Commission might be more receptive to some of labours ideas if only we knew what they are!

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 09:31:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (4.00 / 3)

between (say) Hungary and the UK

With the brain drain in Hungary, the Hungarian government might actually like a return to the good old communist days, where people weren't allowed to leave. The Hungarians themselves, maybe not.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 09:49:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (4.00 / 2)

I just don't see where this willingness to offer Corbyn a hand is supposed to come from. As you you point out, there just is no appetite on the part of the Council to offer anything Corbyn would want. And at that point he has about as much leverage as Greece had unless the Tories stock a lot of cans.
I'm also convinced that our great leaders feel less need to offer any nod towards participatory democracy than at most any point in the last few years. For one they are happy to have the far-right occupy the EU critical discourse. I wouldn't call it a conspiracy, more an effect of the Western media system being tightly coupled and in a siege mood, but the result is the same. Reasonable criticism is drowned by right wing lunatics. Then, both the Trump election and the Brexit vote have brought out the latent loathing of democracy in a lot of the professional classes. It is very noticeable among the gaggle of Clinton diehards and on Remain Twitter.
Though I hasten to add that I don't mean the unwillingness to accept the referendum result or whatever.

by generic on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 01:54:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No deal means no deal. (none / 0)

There are 3 broad options:

No deal Brexit
Negotiated Brexit deal
Remain

The EU Council and Commission would much prefer 3 and , failing that, 2. I is the doomsday scenario.

If May negotiates a deal and campaigns for it in an election and loses, and Corbyn wins by opposing it, then that deal is off the table.

There are then three options:

No deal Brexit
A re-negotiated Brexit deal
Remain

I am suggesting there will be little or no appetite for 2. Time is running out and everyone if fed up with Brexit. Unless Corbyn takes a significantly different approach (membership of Single Market or Customs Union) there will be little appetite (and time) to renegotiate. Why would the EU give Corbyn a better deal than May when so many EU governments are right wing?

So we are down to options 1 and 3 and this may be the binary choice on the second referendum ballot paper.

In that case many voters may vote for no deal because they are angry at being asked a second time and fed up with the whole business. It would also be humiliating for the UK to have to crawl back to the Council saying "please can we have our A.50 letter back?"

The EU elite (forget you and me) would much prefer option 3 to option 1. So they offer Corbyn the option of the UK re-joining a much reformed EU. Corbyn can claim to have negotiated "a better deal for Britain". Voters can feel they are being offered a better choice and the whole process has not been in vain. The EU gets to re-define itself somewhat and do stuff most of which it would have wanted to do anyway.

Everybody wins. The only question is whether the right wing majority on the Council will be able to agree a package of reforms which can credibly be marketed as a significant reform of the EU to Labour and UK voters more generally.

Brexiteers will obviously shout foul and claim the reforms are insignificant or actually make the EU worse. That will not be that hard a sell to voters who distrust Corbyn AND the EU.

But the Brexiteers will also have to spell out the implications of a no-deal Brexit much more clearly. The EU will also have to say that just as Brexit means Brexit, No deal means no deal. No flights. Food shortages. Medicine shortages. A far cry from the first referendum:
.

At least no one will be able to claim they didn't know what they were voting for.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 03:07:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No deal means no deal. (none / 1)

I'm going to insist on what I said in the other thread: the "deal" is the withdrawal agreement plus a political declaration on the future relation and a transition period to negotiate the future relation. And the withdrawal agreement involves money, citizens, and the Irish backstop.

Under your scenario, with the DUP out the window and a Labour/LibDem/SNP majority, the deal Corbyn may be forced to seek is special economic status for Norhern Ireland, Gibraltar... and possibly Scotland and Greater London. One country, five systems. The EU would grant the devolved governments of the UK and its crown dependencies and overseas territories special arrangements as exist for other microstates and peripheral regins. And the customs borders would be within the UK.

Would that pass he Commons? I doubt it. Corbyn would probably be assassinated. And it wouldn't pass a referendum due to the English vote, I don't think.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 09:12:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No deal means no deal. (none / 0)

If the General election is in Oct/November, then Corbyn can credibly argue there is still time to negotiate improvements. Once in office he might accept the May deal as the basis on which his "improvements" will be based for sheer lack of time.

The backstop applies to N. Ireland and only N. Ireland. Corbyn is in favour of a united Ireland so he wouldn't have a problem with that. With the DUP out of the picture the backstop could again be part of the main deal - in return for whatever minor other concessions Corbyn might want and be able to get. Possibly a stronger "political declaration".

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 09:42:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No deal means no deal. (none / 0)

Corbyn is in favour of a united Ireland, but you also say he might depend on the support of the SNP which wants a second Scottish independence referendum.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 09:59:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No deal means no deal. (none / 0)

If he needs SNP support no doubt he would also agree to a Scottish referendum - but if they are smart they will hold it after any second EU referendum.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 10:03:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No deal means no deal. (none / 1)

Or he might avert Scottish independence by offering special economic status for Scotland, similar to that of Northern Ireland.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 10:05:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No deal means no deal. (none / 0)

That would avert a Scottish/N. Ireland border in the Irish sea and place it at the Scottish/English border instead! As far as I am aware there has been little discussion of such an option in Scotland and I doubt it would do much to appease Scottish Nationalists. Their claim is to full independence from the UK (much like the Brexiteer's claim to full independence from the EU) and is not primarily motivated by a Pro-EU sentiment - although that could change if the economic effects of Brexit are very severe in Scotland. One report I have read claims that Edinburgh and Cardiff are proportionately more dependent on the financial services industry than London.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jul 29th, 2018 at 02:32:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (4.00 / 2)

In practice those discussions would be mostly a face saving device to give Labour to an opportunity to claim to have negotiated "a better deal for Britain" and allow voters to feel they are not being humiliated by having to reverse their prior decision.

Because that worked so well with Cameron and the original Brexit vote.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 08:59:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The UK to remain within a reformed EU? | 43 comments (43 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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