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I agree that in the end, Corbyn probably wouldn't get even symbolic concessions. But up until then the scenario feels solid, so let's fork it. Corbyn goes to Brussels and gets nothing. Then what?

In the scenario, Corbyn has made a big number about a second referendum, so one way would be to conclude that they have no good choices, and ask the people to rank Brexit without deal, Brexit with May's deal and revocation of article 50. Or if ranking is to hard, ask for which they want, and which they want if they have to choose between the two other choices. Stepping back to let the people decide maybe means a decrease in prestige, but on the other hand Corbyn can then after the referendum get on with his agenda as no result means that the people voted him down.

And in that scenario the Council may not accept a revocation, so then the Court could get to decide whether an A50 notification can be revoked.

by fjallstrom on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 03:08:57 PM EST
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It all depends on how badly Corbyn wants to be out of the EU, and to what extent he is prepared to compromise and stay in under "improved" terms. The Council have made it pretty clear they would prefer the UK would stay in - despite popular anger and frustration with the UK. But it is not clear they could agree on a substantial package of "reforms" that would be sufficient to persuade Corbyn to campaign for a remain vote, and then to actually sway the vote in a remain direction. Once national pride comes into the equation, people tend to stick to their guns.

My guess is a remain vote could be won, and quite possibly by a substantial margin. I am less sure about Corbyn's preferences and the degree to which a right dominated Council could agree anything substantial. Given so many ifs and buts, this is an outlier scenario, but I think an arguable one. My money would still be on a hard Brexit, with or without a minimalist deal.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 03:26:06 PM EST
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