It all depends on how badly Corbyn wants to be out of the EU, and to what extent he is prepared to compromise and stay in under "improved" terms. The Council have made it pretty clear they would prefer the UK would stay in - despite popular anger and frustration with the UK. But it is not clear they could agree on a substantial package of "reforms" that would be sufficient to persuade Corbyn to campaign for a remain vote, and then to actually sway the vote in a remain direction. Once national pride comes into the equation, people tend to stick to their guns.

My guess is a remain vote could be won, and quite possibly by a substantial margin. I am less sure about Corbyn's preferences and the degree to which a right dominated Council could agree anything substantial. Given so many ifs and buts, this is an outlier scenario, but I think an arguable one. My money would still be on a hard Brexit, with or without a minimalist deal.

Index of Frank's Diaries