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Your scenario hinges on a few quesionable assumptions:
Corbyn whips his MP's to vote against because he doesn't want to be held responsible for the outcome of the negotiations ("a bad deal for Britain") and wants a general election so that a Labour government can negotiate "a better deal".
At that point the vote can credibly be described as one between deal and no deal, and I have no doubt May will make that argument. Unless, of course, May turns the vote into a confidence motion. As your own scenario argues, Corbyn would likely end up with no deal rather than a better deal.

Then you have to assume that the DUP won't hold the balance in the Commons after new elections. What if Corbyn fails to win a majority, but May can have her majority again with he help of DUP or, worse, UKIP?

Then you propose that the same EU council that won't be sympathetic to Corbyn the old-fashioned socialist is going to go along with an agenda for reform that it has been resisting for many years.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 08:53:25 AM EST
Count me also among the Brexit reversal skeptics, not that I wouldn't like the EU to remain whole, but like Mig, I just don't see Frank's scenario having a remote chance.

Given the strength of the Brexiters, with the weight of the Murdoch tabloids, the Tories would have to be beaten decisively, not by a small margin but a real sucker punch. And even then, we don't expect them to sit down meekly and say, oh well, we tried, now do we?

I too am skeptical about the "reformed EU" hypothesis (OK, OK, I'm French, so I'm skeptical by definition, but bear with me for a second): any reform in the EU is a long and glacial process that takes years and involve plenty of compromises. The clock is ticking: in EU legislative time, we're practically at the eve of March 2019.

And even if most of the EU would prefer the UK to remain rather than facing the unknowns of Brexit, the goodwill to bend over backward to accommodate the British demands has seriously evaporated in the past two years. As you remarked above, the EU already did that with Cameron in February 2016, to no avail. For the Brexiters, the only good "reformed EU" is a "dead EU".

by Bernard on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 11:02:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then you propose that the same EU council that won't be sympathetic to Corbyn the old-fashioned socialist is going to go along with an agenda for reform that it has been resisting for many years.

Yes the power inversion needed for that is as immense as it gets.

David and Goliath.

Apart from 5* there isn't any other European political party who would be supportive of such change, or is there? Bernie Sanders, if he had been elected woukd have been enormous help to support Corbyn as they are cut from such similar cloth, but that doesn't look like it's in the immediate offing.

The people would be behind it, if only because everything else but outright fascism has been tried. (And because the majority of Europeans are sufficiently educated in history not to want to go down that road again, Hungary, Poland and Ukraine notwithstanding.) The forces of corporate militarism are strong in the North East and East of Europe, and socioeconomic solutions to poverty and lack of development, while an improvement on the iron curtain days, are still a source of rage, envy and frustration, rendering underemployed youth easy prey for simplist right wing nationalistic forces.
Just as you and Brit predicted ten years ago.

Brussels is long overdue for a fundamental shake-up. The democratic tools are still in place but there's a big shortage of leadership material, leaving us with the likes of Macron, May, Kurz et al.

Which begs the question is the EU necessary, let alone viable in its preset form? Is it still the primary preventive measure that will stop euro states squabbling to the point of repeating the darkest side of our history?

Can we afford top-heavy centrally planned economies of this scale and if so how can we make them serve the peoples' needs rather than those of the 1% as they are presently doing?

If Corbyn could make the EU more democratically accountable he would have earned his prime ministership.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 08:28:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
>the darkest side

Is [the Lisbon Treaty or TFEU] still the primary preventive measure that will stop euro states squabbling to the point of repeating [conflicting bi-lateral treaties, tri-lateral treaties, and alliances of convenience that exacerbated internecine wars for possession of colonial territories]?

Yes.

Sez secular bibble of European "democracy",
Thuc.1.18-21.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Jul 29th, 2018 at 02:06:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thuc. 1.24
The last act before the war was the expulsion of the nobles by the people. The exiled party joined the barbarians, and proceeded to plunder those in the city by sea and land; [6] and the Epidamnians finding themselves hard pressed, sent ambassadors to Corcyra beseeching their mother country not to allow them to perish, but to make up matters between them and the exiles, and to rid them of the war with the barbarians. [7] The ambassadors seated themselves in the temple of Hera as suppliants, and made the above requests to the Corcyraeans. But the Corcyraeans refused to accept their supplication, and they were dismissed without having effected anything.
It's a good thing that Tory gov is populated with cheap, self-servin sumbitches. Lowers the odds, yanno, of "accidental" WWIII.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Jul 29th, 2018 at 02:23:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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