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I'm going to insist on what I said in the other thread: the "deal" is the withdrawal agreement plus a political declaration on the future relation and a transition period to negotiate the future relation. And the withdrawal agreement involves money, citizens, and the Irish backstop.

Under your scenario, with the DUP out the window and a Labour/LibDem/SNP majority, the deal Corbyn may be forced to seek is special economic status for Norhern Ireland, Gibraltar... and possibly Scotland and Greater London. One country, five systems. The EU would grant the devolved governments of the UK and its crown dependencies and overseas territories special arrangements as exist for other microstates and peripheral regins. And the customs borders would be within the UK.

Would that pass he Commons? I doubt it. Corbyn would probably be assassinated. And it wouldn't pass a referendum due to the English vote, I don't think.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 09:12:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the General election is in Oct/November, then Corbyn can credibly argue there is still time to negotiate improvements. Once in office he might accept the May deal as the basis on which his "improvements" will  be based for sheer lack of time.

The backstop applies to N. Ireland and only N. Ireland. Corbyn is in favour of a united Ireland so he wouldn't have a problem with that. With the DUP out of the picture the backstop could again be part of the main deal - in return for whatever minor other concessions Corbyn might want and be able to get.  Possibly a stronger "political declaration".


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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 09:42:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn is in favour of a united Ireland, but you also say he might depend on the support of the SNP which wants a second Scottish independence referendum.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 09:59:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If he needs SNP support no doubt he would also agree to a Scottish referendum - but if they are smart they will hold it after any second EU referendum.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 10:03:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or he might avert Scottish independence by offering special economic status for Scotland, similar to that of Northern Ireland.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 28th, 2018 at 10:05:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That would avert a Scottish/N. Ireland border in the Irish sea and place it at the Scottish/English border instead! As far as I am aware there has been little discussion of such an option in Scotland and I doubt it would do much to appease Scottish Nationalists. Their claim is to full independence from the UK (much like the Brexiteer's claim to full independence from the EU) and is not primarily motivated by a Pro-EU sentiment - although that could change if the economic effects of Brexit are very severe in Scotland. One report I have read claims that Edinburgh and Cardiff are proportionately more dependent on the financial services industry than London.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jul 29th, 2018 at 02:32:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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