Count me also among the Brexit reversal skeptics, not that I wouldn't like the EU to remain whole, but like Mig, I just don't see Frank's scenario having a remote chance.

Given the strength of the Brexiters, with the weight of the Murdoch tabloids, the Tories would have to be beaten decisively, not by a small margin but a real sucker punch. And even then, we don't expect them to sit down meekly and say, oh well, we tried, now do we?

I too am skeptical about the "reformed EU" hypothesis (OK, OK, I'm French, so I'm skeptical by definition, but bear with me for a second): any reform in the EU is a long and glacial process that takes years and involve plenty of compromises. The clock is ticking: in EU legislative time, we're practically at the eve of March 2019.

And even if most of the EU would prefer the UK to remain rather than facing the unknowns of Brexit, the goodwill to bend over backward to accommodate the British demands has seriously evaporated in the past two years. As you remarked above, the EU already did that with Cameron in February 2016, to no avail. For the Brexiters, the only good "reformed EU" is a "dead EU".